Derby Odds

[analyizethis]

Since 2003 172 horses have started in the Derby. 8 of those have been bet down to 5 - 1 or less. In 2003, 2006 and 2011 5 runners have been less than 10 - 1. (In the other years either 3 or 4 have been). In 2003 Empire Maker was 2.5 - 1 and the other four were between 5 and 10 - 1. In the other two years all 5 were between 5 and 10-1.

Given that history I'm going to say that we will have 5 between 5 and 10 - 1 again this year. I would say that those five will be Bodemeister, Gemologist, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another and Union Rags. At that point (at a 16% takeout) between 45% and 50% of the pool has been used up. The next group will be Take Charge Indy, Hansen, Dullahan, Alpha and another runner who trains well. They will be between 10 - 1 and 20 -1 and consume a portion of the pool to get you do about 75%. The rest will, of course on average have 2.5% of the pool bet on them for an average price of about
33 - 1. One of the changes that has happened in Kentucky Derby betting over the years is the compactness of the odds in this final strata and they will probably range from 20 - 1 to 40 - 1.

By the way, when runners have been bet down to 5 - 1 or less they have performed very well finishing in thge money 75% of the time and with an overall win ROI of 1.80 on a dollar.