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#1
04-07-2012, 04:45 AM
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4/7: Aqueduct (1st-11th); Hawthorne (IL Derby); Santa Anita (6th-11th)
AQUEDUCT
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Idle American 5-2 WON ($5.80) Best Value: #4 Mr. Vantastic 8-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Fox Rules 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Chilton 15-1 5th 2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Some notable pedigrees including Ribaletta daughter Riboletti and POE Evening Garden, a half to Harmonious debuting for Jimmy Jerkens. Silverette the horse to beat.. Most Likely: #4 Silverette 8-5 WON ($2.90) Next Best: #3 Riboletti 3-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Stunning Lady 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #1 Evening Garden 10-1 7th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) More classy MDN's including Zito FL returnee Spin Out (Hard Spun) who is a half to sire Friendly Island, Car Talk (Bernardini) a half to Dixie Chatter and 4yo Crepuscolo (Johannesberg), a half to Lion Heart. WinStar's Desert Storm from Mott was ticketed to be a Derby Trail horse but dropped rider and ran off before first scheduled GP start which slowed his '12 campaign. Spin Out ran into Flashy Dresser last time. Guyana Star Dweej ran huge on Gotham Day behind IL Derby candidate Morgan's Guerilla and then matched that try behind Term Loan 3 weeks ago. C. Brown's Rum Tug Tugger was also in the Flashy Dresser race and will likely improve here in 2nd start. Terrific race.. Most Likely: #10 Spin Out 7-2 3rd Next Best: #2 Desert Storm 3-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Quorum 15-1 6th Super Add: #3 Crepuscolo 20-1 10th .10 SUPER: 10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00) 4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super) Well-matched set of NY breds with 6 of the 13 looking possible. Spread it around.. Most Likely: #3 Robert's Breach 7-2 WON ($7.90) Best Value: #12 Easy Street 8-1 9th Next Best: #10 Readbytheline 4-1 4th Exotics Use: #8 Ecstatic Cat 10-1 12th 5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Very tricky group with locals getting back on the lawn. Jump up efforts possible, so a challenging end to the quad sequence. Note AE #14 Frisky Cat (15-1) would be intriguing first turf out of Dynaformer mare Risky Agenda who never won in 8 starts (0-2-2; $32k) but was more than respectable in defeat.. Most Likely: #4 Ampersand 7-2 WON ($6.70) Next Best: #1 Mia Poppy 5-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Snacks 12-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Dreamalot 6-1 8th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 3-4 3: 2-6-10 4: 2-3-4-8-10-12 5: 1-3-4-5 2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Macho Dorado 5-2 6th Best Value: #8 Cosmic King 6-1 4th Next Best: #9 Le Bernardin 3-1 WON ($14.20) Exotics Use: #11 Cribnote 10-1 7th 7th: 63rd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Nice edition of this as the good 3yo fillies begin to line up. Have been singing praises of Millionreasonswhy and this is opportunity for her to be re-introduced to a wider audience after being closest match for Champion My Miss Aurelia as 2yo. Even money favorite Broadway's Alibi beat no one when freaking on sealed Gulfstream slop and is in for a rude awakening here. An enthusiastic play-against.. Most Likely: #3 Millionreasonswhy 2-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Singlet 12-1 4th Next Best: #5 Welcome Guest 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Broadway's Alibi 1-1 WON ($4.30) 8th: 52nd Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Lots of pace signed on which makes it feel like Hardened Wildcat gets desired set up. Respect Trinniberg cut from same cloth as speedy, overachieving sire.. Most Likely: #6 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Trinniberg 9-5 WON ($4.70) Best Value: #8 How Do I Win 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 King and Crusader 8-1 5th 9th: 88th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Straightforward edition of this spring standard with top 4 on ML the ones you have to work through. Alpha and Gemologist aren't appreciably dominant stacked up against My Adonis and Street Life, so don't be affraid to key off the longer prices if that was your inclination. Kelly Breen and Chad Brown every bit as likely to have charges tuned properly as McLaughlin and Pletcher.. Most Likely: #1 Alpha 5-2 2nd Best Value: #3 My Adonis 8-1 7th Next Best: #6 Gemologist 8-5 WON ($4.40) Exotics Use: #5 Street Life 4-1 6th 10th: 112th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (DD, Super) Outstanding, taut group for this preface to the Met Mile. Caleb's Posse should be knocking on Emcee's door late.. Most Likely: #3 Caleb's Posse 8-5 2nd Next Best: #1 (POE) Emcee 7-2 4th/5th Exotics Use: #2 Jackson Bend 3-1 WON ($11.40) <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3 (1-5-6) 8: 1-6-8 9: 1-3-5-6 10: 1-3 Main: 1x3x4x2 = 24 x $1.50 = $36 Back-up: 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 11th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super) Best Value: #13 Molly's Ship 15-1 5th Next Best: #1 Drink With Pride 5-1 12th Exotics Use: #2 Heiden 5-2 WON ($5.60) Super Add: #3 Max's First 6-1 4th HAWTHORNE PRE-SCRATCHES 9th: 55th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) This is a silly race with any combination of mediocrities possible. Pick a bunch at prices and have fun with it. No opinion is ridiculous here.. Best Value: #1 Romancing the Gold 15-1 13th Next Best: #5 Pretension 5-1 9th Exotics Use: #13 Done Talking 20-1 WON ($27.20) Super Add: #3 Ring It Up 15-1 6th SANTA ANITA PRE-SCRATCHES 6th: 75th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Will protect I'll Have Another in multis and exotics but look for values with the highly probable Creative Cause.. Most Likely: #1 Creative Cause 6-5 2nd Best Value: #10 Brother Francis 20-1 5th Next Best: #4 I'll Have Another 5-2 WON ($10.20) Exotics Use: #5 Longview Drive 12-1 9th 7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Fiddlers Afleet 9-5 WON ($4.20) Next Best: #8 Ultimate Decision 9-2 5th Best Value: #4 Next Door Neighbor 10-1 4th Exotics Use: #1 Oilisblackgold 5-1 3rd 8th: 32nd Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Lady of Shamrock 6-5 WON ($3.80) Best Value: #5 Charm the Maker 9-2 4th Next Best: #7 SCR Exotics Use: #3 Killer Graces 8-1 3rd 9th: 30th Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Amazombie 9-5 WON ($4.60) Next Best: #1 Sway Away 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #5 Roman Threat 7-2 2nd Super Add: #6 Camp Victory 6-1 3rd 10th: 3rd American Beauty, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Belle Royale 8-5 WON ($4.40) Best Value: #5 Imperialistic Diva 12-1 7th Next Best: #9 Go Forth North 6-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Rosehill Dew 15-1 9th 11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #1 Midnight Con 5-2 5th Best Value: #6 Ron Burgundy 6-1 WON ($21.60) Next Best: #8 Galitzaner 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Swiss Game 6-1 3rd Super/Hi-5: #4 Bespoke Suit 20-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 8: 1-5-7 9: 1-2 10: ALL 11: 1-6-8 3x2x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (1/2/7-2/4/7/8-4-6) Paid $99.30 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 04-08-2012 at 09:43 AM. 
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#2
04-07-2012, 08:04 AM
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Classic comments about the Ill Derby............you're correct, anything can happen here. Funny that this will have no impact on the Derby other than guaranteeing that someone gets in.
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A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
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#4
04-07-2012, 10:09 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
04-07-2012, 12:44 PM
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Uh oh!
Steve,
If you didn't already notice your HAW and SA disappeared.
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#7
04-07-2012, 01:25 PM
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what happened to the picks???
lol the suspense of awaiting steve's wood memorial selections =)
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#8
04-07-2012, 01:37 PM
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Hey.. Sorry. Just got to AQU. Restored now. When editing, the wireless air card signal sometimes 'stalls' and it erases stuff. Pain in the azz... G/L everybody. Beautiful afternoon here!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
04-09-2012, 12:16 PM
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is the reason why the pick 4 payouts stink at aqueduct more because of short prices or the .50 threshold?? i've hit my last 4 pick 4's there and i think i'm down probably $50 dollars
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#10
04-09-2012, 12:26 PM
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Quote:
$316 (for .50) Late April 6th $1732 (for .50) Early I stopped looking after that.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#11
04-10-2012, 07:20 AM
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guess i'm just hitting bad ones....i could pull 2 ridiculously low payouts out if you would like? thanks for answering my question though
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#12
04-10-2012, 08:50 AM
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Quote:
I'm just guessing you're spreading too broad and unable to pinpoint one or two singles.
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#13
04-10-2012, 09:55 AM
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Quote:
4/7 (Wood day0 EARLY 2/5*, 5-1, 5/2, 5/2* $78 LATE 6/5*, 7/5*, 6/5*, 9/2 $45 4/6 EARLY 12-1, 17-1, 2/5*,3-1* $1732 LATE 6/5*, 6/5*, 8/5*, 1-1* $30 4/5 EARLY 7-1, 13-1, 6/5*, 7/2 $1275 LATE 2-1*, 9/2, 5/2, 9/2 $316 4/4 EARLY 3/2, 8-1, 15-1, 8-1, $1727 LATE 6/5*, 4-1, 7/2, 6/5* $106 3/31 EARLY 2-1, 2-1, 5-1, 3-1 $325 LATE 3-1, 3-1, 7-1, 4/5* $286 3/30 EARLY 5-1, 3/2**, 4/5***, 2-1 $113 LATE 62-1, 1-1*, 33-1, 3-1, $9330 3/29 EARLY 7/5*, 5/2, 2/5*, 7/2 $64 LATE 3/5*, 22-1, 7-1, 9/5 $553 3/28 EARLY 2/5*, 7/2, 6/5*, 3/2 $55 LATE 7-1, 1/5*, 6/5*, 1-1 $49 3/25 EARLY 7/2, 9/5, 3-1, 4-1 $217 LATE 8/5*, 6/5*, 2-1, 3/5* $33 3/24 EARLY 4/5*, 6-1, 11-1, 3-1 $225 LATE 5/2, 3/5*, 6/5*, 7/2* $73 3/23 EARLY 9/5*, 5/2, 4/5*, 2-1 $24 LATE 2-1*, 3-1, 9-1, 5/2* $970 3/22 EARLY 6/5*, 2/1*, 2-1, 7/2 $72 LATE 5-1, 5-1, 2/5*, 17-1 $753 3/21 EARLY 2-1*, 4-1, 7-1, 8-1 $1126 LATE 3-1, 3-1, 6/5*, 2/5* $78 Payouts are all off .50 wager *denotes the favorite ** 3 horse field ****4 horse field Yes, I do agree that the .50 mininum bet does depress payouts to an extent. People have more combinations to win, but there is also more money coming into the pools. But for the most part, the majority of these pick fours that have been coming back light are due to the fact that they just chalked out. There are some nice ones posted that do include chalk. Congrats on hitting your last four pick fours at the big A. But honestly, you are probably doing something wrong if you had the one for $1700 and are still down 50 bucks............................
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#14
04-10-2012, 10:53 AM
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nah they have all been chalk city....singles and then spread deeper on the other legs to try to catch a price to no avail with some even money nag crossing the wire first...
just doesnt seem like it use to be at aq when i started playing with steve a few years back...maybe its just a bad memory though
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