Holiday Wknd Stakes Beyers: Honor/Serve 104; Wise Dan 105

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

No way Webber ships to Dubai unless they buy out the soup company

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

The plan Mott laid out in the DRF is to run him in the GP Handicap in March then the Met Mile. He alluded to how the horse was a bit rushed to get back in February this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not seen until the Westchester at Belmont.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The plan Mott laid out in the DRF is to run him in the GP Handicap in March then the Met Mile. He alluded to how the horse was a bit rushed to get back in February this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not seen until the Westchester at Belmont.

It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.

No one really goes Met-Foster, right? I would think prep somewhere, Met, Whitney, maybe Woodward then JCGC, BCC. 5 or 6 race campaign max.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

No one really goes Met-Foster, right? I would think prep somewhere, Met, Whitney, maybe Woodward then JCGC, BCC. 5 or 6 race campaign max.

I would think the Suburban would fit in nicely between the Met and the Whitney.

Plus, he'll also probably try for a repeat in the Cigar Mile after he gets swallowed up down the lane in the BC Classic.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I would think the Suburban would fit in nicely between the Met and the Whitney.

Plus, he'll also probably try for a repeat in the Cigar Mile after he gets swallowed up down the lane in the BC Classic.

Suburban would make sense, but these horses just dont run that much anymore. The handicap division feels pathetic for 2012 unless Im forgetting about someone.

[hockey2315]

Not sure why they wouldn't take the Quality Road path to start off the year. . . The Donn's just a month before the Gulfstream H., so it's not like he'd be rushed. . . I can't imagine he wouldn't be odds-on there and, if he's healthy, 1 1/8 at GP should be perfect for him. . . that's if you assume he wasn't 100% when he was down there as a 3-year-old.

Then you get plenty of time before the Met Mile, then the Saratoga races--one or both--and some prep before the BC. I'd probably ship him out to Cali for the Goodwood to get a race over the track and not have to go 10f back-to-back, but not sure they'll do that.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Suburban would make sense, but these horses just dont run that much anymore. The handicap division feels pathetic for 2012 unless Im forgetting about someone.

Bill Mott doesn't tend to sit on his horses once they get going.

The battle of attrition for champion 3yo pretty much tells you that the handicap division will be light once again next year. Hopefully, horses will come out of the woodworks (from Europe, turf division, late bloomers, etc.) and others will be transferred to move-up trainers (fingers crossed that Shackleford goes to Bob Baffert).

The Strub Series will give horses like Smash, Industry Leader, Fast Bullet, Centralinteligence, Indian Winter, and Sway Away a chance to stretch out and at least become filler for the handicap division. Ultimate Eagle might have to try dirt, too, if he finds 12f too far or 8f to sharp on the turf.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

He was on the wrong lead in the PA Derby, something that concerned me going into the Classic. Ruler on Ice made up ground, but the final margin was deceiving as it looked because To Honor and Serve was on his wrong lead. Grening of DRF said that he also went onto his wrong lead in that race. I'm not concerned yet about the distance as one race (he has won 3 at 1 1/8 ) where he faded, but not terribly (not like he finished in the back of the pack) is not sufficient for me to judge whether he can or can not get the 1 1/4. Until Fall at Belmont, it won't matter anyway.

[hockey2315]

To Honor and Serve was switching in leads in the PA Derby because he was reacting to the whip.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

To Honor and Serve was switching in leads in the PA Derby because he was reacting to the whip.

Yeah, you're right, I just watched the video again. He blew the race apart on the turn, opened up an easy lead and then.......presto chango.

[blackthroatedwind]

I want to see To Honor and Serve take even a little dirt and still run well. So far, he has never won without either an easy lead or a clear stalking trip. Talented or not, he still has a lot to prove.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

He was on the wrong lead in the PA Derby, something that concerned me going into the Classic. Ruler on Ice made up ground, but the final margin was deceiving as it looked because To Honor and Serve was on his wrong lead. Grening of DRF said that he also went onto his wrong lead in that race. I'm not concerned yet about the distance as one race (he has won 3 at 1 1/8 ) where he faded, but not terribly (not like he finished in the back of the pack) is not sufficient for me to judge whether he can or can not get the 1 1/4. Until Fall at Belmont, it won't matter anyway.

Being on the wrong lead is not an excuse, it's a bad sign, Alydar being the popular exception (although he simply never switched to his right lead IIRC). In a horse with as many starts as To Honor And Serve, it usually signifies stamina or--worse yet--soundness concerns.

He also swapped back to his left lead in the BC Classic.

Good point, though, about 10f not really mattering anymore. It's a shame the Suburban is only 9f and that the Pimlico Special is once again no more. Mott doesn't shy from shipping west, so the Big Cap and Hollywood Gold Cup are technically still on the table, however unlikely.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Being on the wrong lead is not an excuse, it's a bad sign, Alydar being the popular exception (although he simply never switched to his right lead IIRC). In a horse with as many starts as To Honor And Serve, it usually signifies stamina or--worse yet--soundness concerns.

He also swapped back to his left lead in the BC Classic.

Good point, though, about 10f not really mattering anymore. It's a shame the Suburban is only 9f and that the Pimlico Special is once again no more. Mott doesn't shy from shipping west, so the Big Cap and Hollywood Gold Cup are technically still on the table, however unlikely.

If he's still doing it next year, then it will be a problem, but it just seems to me a sign of greenness or mental immaturity. The real problem with being on the wrong lead is that it's hard to get away with against really good horses. He didn't do it in the allowance race at the Spa; he may be a horse that needs to be ridden even with a sizeable lead. His best races, except Saturday's, have come at 1 1/8, so I really think he's fine at the distance. I also don't think he's unsound - in fact, per Mott, he gained weight after the Classic so he's thriving. If it turns out he can't quite go 1 1/4, it's not that big a deal - if he's good, he's good.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

If he's still doing it next year, then it will be a problem, but it just seems to me a sign of greenness or mental immaturity. The real problem with being on the wrong lead is that it's hard to get away with against really good horses. He didn't do it in the allowance race at the Spa; he may be a horse that needs to be ridden even with a sizeable lead. His best races, except Saturday's, have come at 1 1/8, so I really think he's fine at the distance. I also don't think he's unsound - in fact, per Mott, he gained weight after the Classic so he's thriving. If it turns out he can't quite go 1 1/4, it's not that big a deal - if he's good, he's good.

considering his history, it may have more to do with soundness than anything.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

considering his history, it may have more to do with soundness than anything.

Even if I completely believe he was hurt, I don't think it has anything to do with soundness - he did it last year as a 2 year old in the Remsen. I think if the horse had issues, Mott wouldn't be planning such an ambitious schedule - and I don't even think he'd be running next year, truthfully. They just got the grade 1, and in a mile race which breeders love. Weber could easily just retire the colt at this point. I just think the horse is still somewhat immature - hopefully time will take care of that.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Even if I completely believe he was hurt, I don't think it has anything to do with soundness - he did it last year as a 2 year old in the Remsen. I think if the horse had issues, Mott wouldn't be planning such an ambitious schedule - and I don't even think he'd be running next year, truthfully. They just got the grade 1, and in a mile race which breeders love. Weber could easily just retire the colt at this point. I just think the horse is still somewhat immature - hopefully time will take care of that.

sure he's 'planning it' you can plan anything. i can see a green two year old having lead issues, but an almost four year old? some soundness issues doesn't preclude racing, plenty of horses have run even though they weren't a picture of soundness. they have nothing to lose by running him next year. he has a shot to do well as an older horse, and get some wins to help make a stud deal for him.