bc capping notes...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I appreciate the work that went into this, but is this saying anything more than the horses with the best Beyers have the best chance to win? I probably value Beyers more than most here, but I just don't get what's new in this info. Is this suggesting that Beyers may be a better predictor of the BC dirt races than dirt races in general?

--Dunbar

Generally, yes, the "highest" Beyer runners have the "best" chance.. But it involves the performance pattern as much as it does the career high. Perfect Drift has a career high Beyer that "fits" (117), but it was run in 2003.

Sun King (last 4: 105, 113, 96, 112) offers a much more appealing pattern that would indicate formful opportunity to run a race that would put him in the exotics picture (108-114?)...

The decision regarding which runners, who are in the vicinity of the typical winning fig, are the ones you see as "running their race", is an individual call based on your handicapping...

[Thunder Gulch]

Gotta love that spring with 11 horses showing back Beyers within a length of each other's top. No thanks, chalk eaters at the next table.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Gotta love that sprint with 11 horses showing back Beyers within a length of each other's top. No thanks, chalk eaters at the next table.

Chalk?

You mean Thor's Echo at a likely 60-1? Or Kelly's Landing at possibly 30-1? Or the chalky War Front at maybe 20-1? Friendly Island at 40-1-ish?

Which chalky sprint contender within a length of Henny Hughes or Bordonaro do you mean?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Chalk?

You mean Thor's Echo at a likely 60-1? Or Kelly's Landing at possibly 30-1? Or the chalky War Front at maybe 20-1? Friendly Island at 40-1-ish?

Which chalky sprint contender within a length of Henny Hughes or Bordonaro do you mean?

60/1? There's no way Thor's Echo is even half that.. Kelly's Landing will be a lot closer to 60/1 than Thor's Echo. My guess is 20/1 on Thor's Echo.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Chalk?

You mean Thor's Echo at a likely 60-1? Or Kelly's Landing at possibly 30-1? Or the chalky War Front at maybe 20-1? Friendly Island at 40-1-ish?

Which chalky sprint contender within a length of Henny Hughes or Bordonaro do you mean?

That's what I do mean as everyone here seems to love Henny. To clarify, I'll look for something behind the favorites since they are all so closely matched. Personally, I'm interested in Siren Lure and Malibu Mint given an all out war on the front. War Front and Thor's Echo look more like exotic fillers.