BC Classic Notes: Gio Ponti (Mile), Await/Dawn (Turf)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Flat Out isn't much.

I think she'd have problems also keeping in touch with the field. Pace wise.

Flat Out could win the Classic.

This just feels like the wrong race for Havre de Grace.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Flat Out could win the Classic.

This just feels like the wrong race for Havre de Grace.

They both ran 107's saturday and the one time they met she beat him fair and square, yet he has a chance and she'll get drowned? Ok..

I do respect your "feelings" however. Agree to disagree.

Just hope your not on the Uncle Mo train.

[Duvalier]

I thought Repole was going to make the Breeder's Cup look like the USFL or ABA. I can't wait for more of the Repole sideshow leading up to the Breeder's Cup. Is he gonna have another Meet The Mo get together?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

They both ran 107's saturday and the one time they met she beat him fair and square, yet he has a chance and she'll get drowned? Ok..

Not that it matters, but she actually ran a 105 on Saturday.

As for your " fair and square " contention....I would say she got a trip dynamic far more favorable in her victory over Flat Out, relative to him, than she will get in the Classic, and the distance will very likely make a difference.

Everybody seems to have written off Uncle Mo in the Classic, something I can't do a month before the race, given that he is the most talented horse entering the race, while I think she is FAR less likely to win. But, hey, I've been wrong before.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not that it matters, but she actually ran a 105 on Saturday.

As for your " fair and square " contention....I would say she got a trip dynamic far more favorable in her victory over Flat Out, relative to him, than she will get in the Classic, and the distance will very likely make a difference.

Everybody seems to have written off Uncle Mo in the Classic, something I can't do a month before the race, given that he is the most talented horse entering the race, while I think she is FAR less likely to win. But, hey, I've been wrong before.

I don't think people are writing off Uncle Mo and, if anything, are giving him way too much of a chance. I'm not saying he's a throwout by any stretch and is conceivably the most talented horse in the country. However, doesn't he shape up as an absolutely horrible bet given the likelihood that he's one of the favorites? To be asked to go from a mile to 10fs in just his 8th career start, just his 5th of the year, when he has only been beyond a mile as a 3YO once is a tall order, even for a supremely talented horse. Taking that gamble on a horse at 7/2 or thereabouts is beyond risky.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't think people are writing off Uncle Mo and, if anything, are giving him way too much of a chance. I'm not saying he's a throwout by any stretch and is conceivably the most talented horse in the country. However, doesn't he shape up as an absolutely horrible bet given the likelihood that he's one of the favorites? To be asked to go from a mile to 10fs in just his 8th career start, just his 5th of the year, when he has only been beyond a mile as a 3YO once is a tall order, even for a supremely talented horse. Taking that gamble on a horse at 7/2 or thereabouts is beyond risky.

I should have said everybody that thinks they're a wiseguy.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't think people are writing off Uncle Mo and, if anything, are giving him way too much of a chance. I'm not saying he's a throwout by any stretch and is conceivably the most talented horse in the country. However, doesn't he shape up as an absolutely horrible bet given the likelihood that he's one of the favorites? To be asked to go from a mile to 10fs in just his 8th career start, just his 5th of the year, when he has only been beyond a mile as a 3YO once is a tall order, even for a supremely talented horse. Taking that gamble on a horse at 7/2 or thereabouts is beyond risky.

Do you really think Uncle Mo will be 7-2? he would be a great play at that price. My guess is that he will be favored and is less than 2-1.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Do you really think Uncle Mo will be 7-2? he would be a great play at that price. My guess is that he will be favored and is less than 2-1.

Paul

In the last 10 runnings of the BC Classic the only favorites who went off at less than 2-1 were Zenyatta in 2010, Curlin in 2008, and Bernardini in 2006. I just don't see him having that kind of popularity at the windows. I suppose anything is possible and he has a huge reputation but I think he's more in the 5/2 or 3-1 range.

[GPK]

Repole will make sure he's the favorite

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

In the last 10 runnings of the BC Classic the only favorites who went off at less than 2-1 were Zenyatta in 2010, Curlin in 2008, and Bernardini in 2006. I just don't see him having that kind of popularity at the windows. I suppose anything is possible and he has a huge reputation but I think he's more in the 5/2 or 3-1 range.

Repole might make sure he's less than 2-1. I agree with you, at 2-1 or less he's not worth the gamble. Let's hope they all make it to the starting gate.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't think people are writing off Uncle Mo and, if anything, are giving him way too much of a chance. I'm not saying he's a throwout by any stretch and is conceivably the most talented horse in the country. However, doesn't he shape up as an absolutely horrible bet given the likelihood that he's one of the favorites? To be asked to go from a mile to 10fs in just his 8th career start, just his 5th of the year, when he has only been beyond a mile as a 3YO once is a tall order, even for a supremely talented horse. Taking that gamble on a horse at 7/2 or thereabouts is beyond risky.

If he is 7/2 in the gate I will eat the program. If he trains well and the reports are strong from the backside he should be 8/5.. Flat Out, tizway off the bench and a Jones juiced filly are the top three contenders..come now that isnt exactly murders row

[ellpol]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Flat Out could win the Classic.

This just feels like the wrong race for Havre de Grace.

Trust Larry Jones he knows best

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Flat Out could win the Classic.

This just feels like the wrong race for Havre de Grace.

Ya think???

Looks like the one to beat to me but, what do I know...

[NTamm1215]

Of all the horses on that list with no chance it's a little funny that two horses who came up with negative remarks on this thread were Flat Out and Havre de Grace. I guess the rest were self explanatory.

[gamblin4ever]

As of now, just pencil Awesome Gem in 2nd.

[Bogey]

How about Giant Oak and Ruler On Ice for 3rd and 4th, respectively.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by Bogey

How about Giant Oak and Ruler On Ice for 3rd and 4th, respectfully.

Giant Oak i can see being there, but not Ruler On Ice, I see 6-8.

[Indian Charlie]

I think favoritism, barring anything happening between now and then, will be between Mo and the filly.

I really don't see either being pounded at the windows, as they both have some question marks about them.

I do believe HDG will see more sentiment at the windows than Mo.

Every horse aiming for this race has serious holes in their form.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Bogey

How about Giant Oak and Ruler On Ice for 3rd and 4th, respectfully.

If there is a pace collapse and Ruler on Ice is ridden properly I think he can absolutely clunk up for 3rd or 4th.

[skyfire]

This isn't a race to enter as a spur of the moment, nothing else left to do race. I will take American horses pointing to BCC over SYT, etc.