7/14: $109k HollyPark C/O-Discussion/Contest

[MaTH716]

The 8th looks like a good place to use the ALL button.

[GPK]

Random thoughts...

Unzip Me a single in the 7th?

Can you get away with using just the 2 Bafferts in the 6th?

In the 5th, Kingpin Ryno could be tough on the turn back and adding blinks. Valen should run much better 2nd off the long layoff and Chantal off doesn't hurt. Carla Gaines FTS looks appealing.

Town Bell looks like the one to deny in the 4th.

Mitchell's first off the claim will probably be a single for many tickets in the 3rd.

2 Miller's and a Harrington should cover you in the finale.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by GPK

Random thoughts...

Unzip Me a single in the 7th? Boy, you love yourself some Marty Jones.......Her last 10 races have all been stakes races. This is probably a tuneup for her next race. She could obviously win, but I think the Proctor on the rail has a big chance with all the speed in the race. The ONeill horse deserves a look as well.

Can you get away with using just the 2 Bafferts in the 6th? I'm having trouble with this race. I can't see both Baffert's dueling each other on the lead. Do you go with both? Then I think you have to use the 4, all his sprint races have been competitive. The Hollendorfer horse seems to fit and is going to want to be near the front as well. And if you think that the race could melt down then you have to possibly throw in the one also.

In the 5th, Kingpin Ryno could be tough on the turn back and adding blinks. Valen should run much better 2nd off the long layoff and Chantal off doesn't hurt. Carla Gaines FTS looks appealing. I like Kingpin Ryno too (which means if both of us are on him, he has no chance). I also think the Sadler horse seems like a capt. obvious horse. Not sure what to do about the Gaines FTS.

Town Bell looks like the one to deny in the 4th.I would use the Carla Gains horse there too.

Mitchell's first off the claim will probably be a single for many tickets in the 3rd.I don't know about a single. I think the Pender horse on the rail is a gate to wire threat. For some reason I'm drawn to the 7 on the outside. 2nd off a layoff and ran in a protected spot for 20k last out. Now stepping up a level for her 2nd off the bench. I might try to let Mitchell beat me.

2 Miller's and a Harrington should cover you in the finale.Last race seems like a crap shoot, in addition to the horse you mentioned I would throw in the 4 and 9

Random thoughts part II

[GPK]

I do like Marty Jones.

I will have to do some research, but when Baffert has 2 horses entered in a race this meet, he win % is absurd. I would roll the dice on those two.

The Sadler does seem like a Capt. Obvious horse in the 5th (may go off at even money?) and your girlfriend, Kayla Stra looks like she will insure that he gets a nice pace to run at as well.

Neither Gaines horse in the 4th concern me at all (that alone should make one of them an automatic winner). It looks like she can't decide what to do with On Your Mark. (sprint on dirt, route on turf, sprint on poly, route on turf and now route on poly) Team Builder has had his chances and I would let him beat me.

Sleep Tight showed some speed with Carava, but Pender is no Carava. I also don't think she will be alone on the front end. You can have the outside horse.

Dude, have you seen the trainers stats on He's A Sure Call? Are you adding them both because they are by the same sire? He was turf only and didn't race at 2.


Random thoughts III

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by GPK

I do like Marty Jones.

I will have to do some research, but when Baffert has 2 horses entered in a race this meet, he win % is absurd. I would roll the dice on those two.

The Sadler does seem like a Capt. Obvious horse in the 5th (may go off at even money?) and your girlfriend, Kayla Stra looks like she will insure that he gets a nice pace to run at as well.

Neither Gaines horse in the 4th concern me at all (that alone should make one of them an automatic winner). It looks like she can't decide what to do with On Your Mark. (sprint on dirt, route on turf, sprint on poly, route on turf and now route on poly) Team Builder has had his chances and I would let him beat me.

Sleep Tight showed some speed with Carava, but Pender is no Carava. I also don't think she will be alone on the front end. You can have the outside horse.

Dude, have you seen the trainers stats on He's A Sure Call? Are you adding them both because they are by the same sire? He was turf only and didn't race at 2.


Random thoughts III

Agreed with your thoughts regarding On Your Mark, but I think she warrents consideration just on the drop. I don't like Team Builder either, but I do think that she might try to steal the race on the frond end. Doesn't seem to be any speed besides the 8 in the race.

I like the cutback for Sleep Tight, although I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a big fan on horses running back 6 days later.

As far as He's a Sure Call goes, yeah the trainers stats are pretty bad, but the numbers are very limited. His stats for the meet aren't awful. 5 starters with a winner and 2 places. Makes me think that he's sending out horses that at least have a chance. Really its a Maiden 40k for Statebreds, nothing would suprise me in this race. Besides the worktab for the horse is far from horrible.

Remember the discussion we had the other day, about trying to catch prices here and there? Well this is me throwing my line in the water trying to snag one in what seems to be a fairly wide open race.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Agreed with your thoughts regarding On Your Mark, but I think she warrents consideration just on the drop. I don't like Team Builder either, but I do think that she might try to steal the race on the frond end. Doesn't seem to be any speed besides the 8 in the race.

I like the cutback for Sleep Tight, although I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a big fan on horses running back 6 days later.

As far as He's a Sure Call goes, yeah the trainers stats are pretty bad, but the numbers are very limited. His stats for the meet aren't awful. 5 starters with a winner and 2 places. Makes me think that he's sending out horses that at least have a chance. Really its a Maiden 40k for Statebreds, nothing would suprise me in this race. Besides the worktab for the horse is far from horrible.

Remember the discussion we had the other day, about trying to catch prices here and there? Well this is me throwing my line in the water trying to snag one in what seems to be a fairly wide open race.

Dropping to open 20 out of MSW State breds doesn't scare me. If Town Belle runs back to her lone poly route effort, she should win for fun.

0 for 25 synthetic is all I need to see on Vargas.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by GPK

I do like Marty Jones.

I will have to do some research, but when Baffert has 2 horses entered in a race this meet, he win % is absurd. I would roll the dice on those two.

As per the DRF: Bob Baffert started two horses in a race 17 times meet, winning 11 of those races.

I guess 65% is kind of a gaudy number.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

As per the DRF: Bob Baffert started two horses in a race 17 times meet, winning 11 of those races.

I guess 65% is kind of a gaudy number.

I'm not sure if I am more impressed with his stat, or that fact you knew how to figure out it was 65%

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by GPK

I'm not sure if I am more impressed with his stat, or that fact you knew how to figure out it was 65%

I asked somebody.................