Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[parsixfarms]

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

I've been thinking that exact thing. Great comment.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

I see your point but disagree. One thing that Animal Kingdom always had going for him, even before we found out he'd handle dirt, is that he's very handy. He has won from a stalking position and now won from well off the pace in the two biggest races of his life.

The issue that he would run into in a fast paced race is if JV asks him to stay too close because he's uncomfortable about being too far back. I don't really see that happening because he seems to be the type of horse that can almost be placed anywhere.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm sorry, now horses handle a surface because of the ( theoretical ) dynamics of a race? OK.....good luck with that one.

Just an aside....this Derby did NOT have a slow pace. It had a pace that was slow for the KY Derby, which usually has a wicked pace, but it was not on the slow side of par. It was a fairly run race and the best horse won.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry, now horses handle a surface because of the ( theoretical ) dynamics of a race? OK.....good luck with that one.

Just an aside....this Derby did NOT have a slow pace. It had a pace that was slow for the KY Derby, which usually has a wicked pace, but it was not on the slow side of par. It was a fairly run race and the best horse won.

It came back below par on the Moss figures, but I agree with you. Race dynamics didn't seem to affect anyone besides maybe Dialed In.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It came back below par on the Moss figures, but I agree with you. Race dynamics didn't seem to affect anyone besides maybe Dialed In.

There is something VERY strange about the fractions in the routes, at least this weekend, at Churchill.

[hockey2315]

Ya I noticed that too. . .

[Kasept]

PREAKNESS FIELD

Committed:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Astrology
5. Concealed Idenity
6. Dance City
7. Flashpoint
8. King Congie
9. Prime Cut
10. Norman Asbjornson
11. Sway Away


Possible

Mr. Commons
Santiva
Saratoga Red


Doubtful

Nehro
Midnight Interlude
The Factor
Mucho Macho Man

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There is something VERY strange about the fractions in the routes, at least this weekend, at Churchill.

What do you find strange?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I see your point but disagree. One thing that Animal Kingdom always had going for him, even before we found out he'd handle dirt, is that he's very handy. He has won from a stalking position and now won from well off the pace in the two biggest races of his life.

The issue that he would run into in a fast paced race is if JV asks him to stay too close because he's uncomfortable about being too far back. I don't really see that happening because he seems to be the type of horse that can almost be placed anywhere.

I agree with your assessment of some of Animal Kingdom's attributes. (I've always liked him, and he was one of the horses that I used on Saturday.) We don't know how he'll react to being in a fast-paced dirt race. Anyone taking a short price on him in the Preakness will be asking him to do something that he has not done before.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I agree with your assessment of some of Animal Kingdom's attributes. (I've always liked him, and he was one of the horses that I used on Saturday.) We don't know how he'll react to being in a fast-paced dirt race. Anyone taking a short price on him in the Preakness will be asking him to do something that he has not done before.

Sort of like how he was the first horse in Derby history to win the race without having previously started on dirt. Not that I disagree with you on the Preakness, but the horse seems to be quite tractable on any surface, you know?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sort of like how he was the first horse in Derby history to win the race without having previously started on dirt.

It's different taking that kind of risk on a horse who is 20-1, as opposed to one who is favored at odds between 8-5 and 2-1.