Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

Think this was meant to be War Emblem.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Think this was meant to be War Emblem.

LOL, yes it was. I noticed in looking at the chart who it was that got a lot of money in the Preakness keeping War Emblem's odds relatively high.

[slotdirt]

All that cash on Medaglia and freaking Magic Weisner clunked up for the place.

[Kasept]

PROSPECTIVE PREAKNESS FIELD

Committed:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Astrology
5. Concealed Idenity
6. Dance City
7. Flashpoint
8. King Congie
9. Mucho Macho Man
10. Sway Away
11. Midnight Interlude
12. Mr. Commons


Possible

Isn’t He Perfect


Doubtful

Nehro


In case the Preakness overfills, the criteria determining eligibility is as follows: first seven starters, graded earnings; next four starters, non-restricted stakes earnings; last three starters, total earnings.

Entries for the 1 3/16-mile race will be drawn May 18 under the traditional pill-pull method.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Kasept

PROSPECTIVE PREAKNESS FIELD

Possible

Mr. Commons
Santiva
Saratoga Red
Harlan’s Hello
Isn’t He Perfect

Lukas said yesterday that Saratoga Red has been withdrawn from Preakness consideration

[AeWingnut]

my early selection is

Dance City then Animal Kingdom

so auto toss

[analyizethis]

Originally Posted by Kasept

PROSPECTIVE PREAKNESS FIELD

Committed:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Astrology
5. Concealed Idenity
6. Dance City
7. Flashpoint
8. King Congie
9. Norman Asbjornson
10. Sway Away
11. Midnight Interlude
12. Casper's Touch


Possible

Mr. Commons
Santiva
Harlan’s Hello
Isn’t He Perfect


Doubtful

Nehro
Mucho Macho Man


In case the Preakness overfills, the criteria determining eligibility is as follows: first seven starters, graded earnings; next four starters, non-restricted stakes earnings; last three starters, total earnings.

Entries for the 1 3/16-mile race will be drawn May 18 under the traditional pill-pull method.

It sure looks like a lot of pace lined up for this one. Shackleford, Flashpoint and Dance City are all confirmed front end runners and since I have not reviewed all the pps there could be more. As long as he doesn't react to coming back in two weeks AK should sit in the second tier and even if they don't back up to him he has shown he can outclose this group. The question is wheather or not Dialed In will be close enough to make an impact. In the KD he closed in under :24 in each of the last two quarters but was way too far away. Given the "kit gloves" way he has been handled I'd be concerned about him coming back in two weeks also.

[XIIPointStables]

RE: Mucho Macho Man...

Any further word? Just read Grening/Privman notes, no mention of bypassing the Preakness?

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-an...rrival-pimlico

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

RE: Mucho Macho Man...

Any further word? Just read Grening/Privman notes, no mention of bypassing the Preakness?

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-an...rrival-pimlico

Kathy Ritvo said the internet report was wrong. They're still pointing for Preakness.

[Kasept]

PREAKNESS FIELD -- RANKED BY FIELD STANDARDS

In case the Preakness overfills, the criteria determining eligibility is as follows: first seven starters, graded earnings; next four starters, non-restricted stakes earnings; last three starters, total earnings.

Entries for the 1 3/16-mile race will be drawn May 18 under the traditional pill-pull method.


Graded Earnings

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Midnight Interlude
4. Mucho Macho Man
5. Shackleford
6. Astrology
7. Santiva
------------------------
8. King Congie
9. Flashpoint
10. Mr. Commons
11. Norman Asbjornson
12. Ruler On Ice



Non-restricted Earnings

A. (8) King Congie
B. (9) Flashpoint
C. (10) Mr. Commons
D. (11) Norman Asbjornson
-------------------------
E. Ruler On Ice
F. Dance City
G. Sway Away
H. Concealed Identity


Overall Earnings

a. (12) Ruler On Ice
b. (13) Dance City
c. (14) Sway Away
-------------------------
d. Concealed Identity
e. Isn't He Perfect
f. Saratoga Red

[Kasept]

1 Animal Kingdom
2 Dialed In
3 Midnight Interlude
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Shackleford
6 Astrology
7 King Congie
8 Flashpoint
9 Mr. Commons
10 Sway Away
11 Norman Asbjornson
12 Dance City
13 Concealed Identity
14 Isn't He Perfect
__________________________________________________ ______________

15 Saratoga Red

[Kasept]

Ruler On Ice Out; Concealed Identity Likely In

RULER ON ICE – George and Lori Hall’s Ruler On Ice isn’t likely to run in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, trainer Kelly Breen said Monday morning. “He’s fine. I haven’t talked to the owners yet, but I don’t believe we’re going to make the Preakness. I’ll talk to them later today and try to see what’s best for the horse. It’s a long year. We might think about the Belmont, but I’m not sure,” Breen said. “He came out of that last race with low blood, and we’re just trying to get him pumped up right now.” Ruler On Ice finished second as the 3-2 favorite in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 7.


CONCEALED IDENTITY – The Federico Tesio Stakes winner is “80-20” to run in Saturday’s Preakness, said Linda Gaudet, who owns the son of 2004 Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones in partnership with Morris Bailey.
With the defection of Ruler On Ice Monday morning, the Bowie Training Center-based Concealed Identity moved into the prospective Preakness field, which is limited to 14 horses.

“We’re very realistic. We’re shooting for the stars, but other than the horses from the Derby – the 1-2-3-4 finishers that are coming – we’re on the same page with the other horses,” said Gaudet, the wife of trainer Eddie Gaudet. “The horse has run very well at Pimlico and has done everything we’ve asked.”

Concealed Identity, who won the Maryland Juvenile Championship last year, was winless in three starts this year before being sent around two turns at Pimlico on April 15, when he won an entry-level allowance by more than three lengths. The Maryland-bred gelding came right back on May 7 to score a two-length victory over favored Ruler On Ice in the Tesio.

“We don’t have to ship. The horse has run well at Pimlico, so that’s always been an advantage,” Gaudet said. “Eddie hasn’t had a horse in the Preakness before and they don’t come along very often. Is he a superstar? Probably not, but he’s a nice little horse. It’s an opportunity we might take advantage of. It’s home; it’s close; he’s good; we’re all a little excited.” Sheldon Russell will retain the mount, said Gaudet.

[dalakhani]

Does anybody have any thoughts on Mr. Commons? I want to use him on Saturday and I hear his works are promising along with the fact that it is Shirreffs.

Any buzz?

[pweizer]

This DRF story tells you all you need to know about the new faces:

http://www.drf.com/news/who-can-beat...rans-have-edge

The money quote: Among the newcomers, Watchmaker has Saratoga Red at the shortest odds (10-1).

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

This DRF story tells you all you need to know about the new faces:

http://www.drf.com/news/who-can-beat...rans-have-edge

The money quote: Among the newcomers, Watchmaker has Saratoga Red at the shortest odds (10-1).

Paul

Doesn't that have to be a misprint? I couldn't believe it when I saw it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Does anybody have any thoughts on Mr. Commons? I want to use him on Saturday and I hear his works are promising along with the fact that it is Shirreffs.

Any buzz?

Turf horse. Only dirt starts he beat a Cal bred ex-claimer by a desperate head, then ran a weakening 3rd with a ground saving trip behind horses that ended up 16th and 19th in the Kentucky Derby.