Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible

[Kasept]

LEXINGTON

Jaycito -- Doubtful
Prime Cut
Silver Medallion
Casper's Touch
Derby Kitten
Beachcombing



JEROME

Rattlesnake Bridge
Astrology
Cal Nation
Free Entry
Justin Phillip
Rattlesnake Bridge
Gallant Dreams
Vee’s Accolade

Possible:

J J’s Lucky Train
Adios Charlie
Isn’t He Perfect
Starship Caesar

[OldDog]

It is looking increasingly doubtful that Jaycito will make his scheduled appointment in Saturday’s Grade 2, $200,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, in which he would have been one of the top choices.

The Lexington became an option for Jaycito after he missed the Santa Anita Derby on April 9 with a bruised right front foot. However, he has not worked since then. In fact, Jaycito has not worked since April 2, and has not raced since March 12, when he finished a distant second in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in his only start of this year. Jaycito has had only two works since the San Felipe.

http://www.drf.com/news/jaycitos-lexington-status-doubt

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

JEROME

Rattlesnake Bridge
Astrology
Cal Nation
Free Entry
Justin Phillip
Rattlesnake Bridge
Gallant Dreams
Vee’s Accolade

Could be a decent betting race, but is Rattlesnake Bridge and Rattlesnake Bridge coupled?

[PatCummings]

Hurricane Lake is going in the Lexington. He isn't TC nominated - another Bonde shipper.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Hurricane Lake is going in the Lexington. He isn't TC nominated - another Bonde shipper.

A major flaw painful illustrated this year is the fact that all graded earnings are counted towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly, synthetic and turf races need to be stricken from the accounting.

Although Jeff Bonde has an outside chance to hit the board with longshot Twice The Appeal (draw a line through his turf and synthetic races, and his record is 5-3-2-0), he'd have a better shot theoretically with Sway Away, who made a striking move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby. To be perfectly honest, races in New Mexico and Vinton, LA probably shouldn't count, either. Hopefully, Sway Away can at least get into the Preakness.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Brilliant Speed can improve on either his two dirt starts last year (a 10-length drubbing at the hands of Boys of Tascanova and a 20-length hiding behind Mucho Macho Man and Joe Vann).

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

A major flaw painful illustrated this year is the fact that all graded earnings are counted towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly, synthetic and turf races need to be stricken from the accounting.

Although Jeff Bonde has an outside chance to hit the board with longshot Twice The Appeal (draw a line through his turf and synthetic races, and his record is 5-3-2-0), he'd have a better shot theoretically with Sway Away, who made a striking move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby. To be perfectly honest, races in New Mexico and Vinton, LA probably shouldn't count, either. Hopefully, Sway Away can at least get into the Preakness.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Brilliant Speed can improve on either his two dirt starts last year (a 10-length drubbing at the hands of Boys of Tascanova and a 20-length hiding behind Mucho Macho Man and Joe Vann).

I couldn't agree with you more.

Fortunately, the Lexington's purse has been cut and winning it will no longer guarantee a spot in the Derby. That being said, it could ensure Silver Medallion has enough to get in. It's way, way past time for 2YO earnings to be done away with altogether.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I couldn't agree with you more.

Fortunately, the Lexington's purse has been cut and winning it will no longer guarantee a spot in the Derby. That being said, it could ensure Silver Medallion has enough to get in. It's way, way past time for 2YO earnings to be done away with altogether.

Does Uncle Mo get in w/out 2yo earnings? 3rd in the Wood should do it, but I don't think eliminating 2yo earnings is the answer... discounting them, sure... maybe 50%? Who knows.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does Uncle Mo get in w/out 2yo earnings? 3rd in the Wood should do it, but I don't think eliminating 2yo earnings is the answer... discounting them, sure... maybe 50%? Who knows.

If you did away with them altogether then Team Todd would have had to do something crazy like having the poor horse ready to run three times before the Derby! Would that fit his 'program'?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

A major flaw painful illustrated this year is the fact that all graded earnings are counted towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly, synthetic and turf races need to be stricken from the accounting.Although Jeff Bonde has an outside chance to hit the board with longshot Twice The Appeal (draw a line through his turf and synthetic races, and his record is 5-3-2-0), he'd have a better shot theoretically with Sway Away, who made a striking move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby. To be perfectly honest, races in New Mexico and Vinton, LA probably shouldn't count, either. Hopefully, Sway Away can at least get into the Preakness.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Brilliant Speed can improve on either his two dirt starts last year (a 10-length drubbing at the hands of Boys of Tascanova and a 20-length hiding behind Mucho Macho Man and Joe Vann).

i disagree. a 3 yo graded winner should get consideration-especially over a 2 yo graded winner. last year shouldn't count towards this year. changing using 2 yo earnings would keep horses from coasting in come spring. horses that are handled as fragile hothouse flowers with two whole starts in the spring would no longer get in on races from seven and eight months prior.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i disagree. a 3 yo graded winner should get consideration-especially over a 2 yo graded winner. last year shouldn't count towards this year. changing using 2 yo earnings would keep horses from coasting in come spring. horses that are handled as fragile hothouse flowers with two whole starts in the spring would no longer get in on races from seven and eight months prior.

While I don't necessarily agree with basing it on earnings (because any track can artificially inflate a purse), certainly I think recognizing 2yo races in some fashion is acceptable.

History says that its the horses with 2yo form, preferably graded form, that go on to compete successfully in the Triple Crown. There are few (eg Curlin, maybe Rock Hard Ten) exceptions to this.

At any rate, counting juvenile races on dirt is better than counting 3yo races on a different surface from the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, and Brilliant Speed have combined to do absolutely zero on a dirt surface, yet have secured spots in the starting gate over horses that have.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

At any rate, counting juvenile races on dirt is better than counting 3yo races on a different surface from the Kentucky Derby.

Good point...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

While I don't necessarily agree with basing it on earnings (because any track can artificially inflate a purse), certainly I think recognizing 2yo races in some fashion is acceptable.

History says that its the horses with 2yo form, preferably graded form, that go on to compete successfully in the Triple Crown. There are few (eg Curlin, maybe Rock Hard Ten) exceptions to this.

At any rate, counting juvenile races on dirt is better than counting 3yo races on a different surface from the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, and Brilliant Speed have combined to do absolutely zero on a dirt surface, yet have secured spots in the starting gate over horses that have.

it's not the issue of two year old form, it's the issue of encouraging more starts at three, and having good three year olds in the derby-as opposed to a good two year old who may have been surpassed by his peers a few months later-but he earned enough last season to play this season.