Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....




Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

Thanks. I'm glad you're amused, I really am. Now we're even.

It's pretty amazing that Uncle Mo tops your most likely list, or anyone's for that matter. My "inside information" is pretty much what I see:
1. He's 6-8 lengths off his 2 yo form
2. He's got distance questions
3. He ran his Wood like he was not only short but didn't look real good at any time. Changing leads multiple times like he did fairly early ain't a good sign.
4. He's got physical issues. Q-crack and his GI disorder are minor things but, at a minimum (and at best) it likely explains his subpar Wood which, to me at least, means he didn't run hard enough to get what he needed from the race.

The "mystery procedure?" I know what I read, that's all. I doubt he'd have come back so quick from anything moderate to serious. But, yeah, I'd guess he had a ittle work done.

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

You obviously think he's likely to work great, overcome whatever number and degree of physical issues he has, have no problem going 10f and run above, or at least match, his top 2 yo form. With all that he's still your most likely winner.

While I understand what an overlay is, I want to commend you making ArchArch 12/1 on your fair value line and getting $52 to win. That is hot sh1t indeed.