Last 15 KY Derby winners at this point

[OldDog]

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

You'd have to compare his PPs to the other contenders that year.

According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...

Silver Charm's daddy was a G1 winner over 10f by Buckpasser and had already sired a G1 winner over 12f (Forever Silver, Brooklyn H). His dam was a 7-time 2-turn winner by Poker, damsire of Seattle Slew. And the The Factor is bred how?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

War Front's are 15-for-54 (28%) in route races. They are 14-for-109 (13%) in sprint races.

War Front's are also 0-for-36 as first-time starters.

Good luck to anyone who has him pegged as a win early sire of nothing but sprinters. Almost everything of his that has stretched out has improved.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Charismatic and War Emblem both had one huge recent race. They both had the top last out figure going into the KY Derby.

The reason why they went off at such a huge price is because the race came from out of nowhere - and they bascially both sucked sh!t through a straw prior to the one big recent race.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Charismatic and War Emblem both had one huge recent race. They both had the top last out figure going into the KY Derby.

The reason why they went off at such a huge price is because the race came from out of nowhere - and they bascially both sucked sh!t through a straw prior to the one big recent race.

If my recollection is correct, War Emblem was also allowed an uncontested lead. This hasn't happened since and will probably not happen very often given the amount of sprinters (that have won the majority of their graded earnings in sprint races as 2 year olds or early in their 3 year old season) now entering the derby

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

War Front's are 15-for-54 (28%) in route races. They are 14-for-109 (13%) in sprint races.

War Front's are also 0-for-36 as first-time starters.

Good luck to anyone who has him pegged as a win early sire of nothing but sprinters. Almost everything of his that has stretched out has improved.

His progeny are having increasing success going long by the day. Summer Soiree, a filly you mentioned as being eerily reminiscent of Eight Belles with her huge improvement all of a sudden for Larry Jones is a War Front. So is the winner of the Grindstone at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Great Mills.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Forgot about Great Mills - 16-for-55 now I guess.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Silver Charm's daddy was a G1 winner over 10f by Buckpasser and had already sired a G1 winner over 12f (Forever Silver, Brooklyn H). His dam was a 7-time 2-turn winner by Poker, damsire of Seattle Slew. And the The Factor is bred how?

The Factor's Grand Sire is Danzig. For me, enough said. War Front was and excellent sprinter but his offspring might carry the Danzig gene further than he did. Soldat (by War Front) was not too shabby going 2 turns. All I was saying is at 37-1 there were worse places to spend a few bucks. Obviously, that is why he 37-1.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

The Factor's Grand Sire is Danzig. For me, enough said. War Front was and excellent sprinter but his offspring might carry the Danzig gene further than he did. Soldat (by War Front) was not too shabby going 2 turns. All I was saying is at 37-1 there were worse places to spend a few bucks. Obviously, that is why he 37-1.

My hesitation about The Factor is Baffert not only has his doubts about him getting the distance, he also recently said he is like a "runaway train". Not comparing them but it reminds me about his issues dealing with Sinister Minister.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

My hesitation about The Factor is Baffert not only has his doubts about him getting the distance, he also recently said he is like a "runaway train". Not comparing them but it reminds me about his issues dealing with Sinister Minister.

Sinister Minister was a bum - up until the one time he got loose at Kee.

If you want to compare The Factor to a Baffert that didn't pan out - you'd do it with Straight Man.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

You'd have to compare his PPs to the other contenders that year.

According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by OldDog

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

Baffert had Excellent Meeting and General Challenge who both took a lot of action. Prime Timber (Lukas?) and Cat Thief did too... so Charismatic was looked at like his third string or so. Plus, Stephen Got Even was in the race, and he was well backed.

And probably more importantly... there was a mutuel field, and Charismatic was not part of it.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Baffert had Excellent Meeting and General Challenge who both took a lot of action. Prime Timber (Lukas?) and Cat Thief did too... so Charismatic was looked at like his third string or so. Plus, Stephen Got Even was in the race, and he was well backed.

And probably more importantly... there was a mutuel field, and Charismatic was not part of it.

Stuck between some rocks and hard place. That helps me to understand it somewhat. I'd still like to see the PPs. Also I couldn't help but notice how many starts Charismatic had had at this point compared to the others that DrugS listed.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by OldDog

I'd still like to see the PPs.

Try going to Dan Illman's most recent blog and request the pps. You will need to log in.
http://www.drf.com/blogs/handigambli...nta-anita-turf

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

Thanks for posting that piece.

Not taking anything away from Charismatic or Chris Antley, but isn't this a Kentucky Derby story that gets played out a lot? Seemingly dominant (but relatively inexperienced) 3 YOs get rough trips in what is by far the largest field in which they have raced, while the horse and rider who may not be the best but are able to stay out of trouble and race closest to their style are able to pull off an upset. Charismatic had raced more than a dozen times goint into the Derby and was showing improvement in '99. Even though he got caught 5 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the far turn, he was able to maintain a pace closest to his ideal race, setting up his "perfect" day. Everything came together for him, while the favorites got bumped and shuffled. He proved it was no fluke, going on to win the Preakness, but if the Derby hadn't been such a rough race - 19 horses, no pace - would he have won it? Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

Obvious, yes, but not any the less true. Every time a columnist starts a lament about why we haven't had a Triple Crown in forever I always think "20 horses in the Kentucky Derby." I'm not saying that's the only reason, and if it were 14 horses we'd have had a bunch of TC winners (though I do think Afleet Alex would have won), but I think it makes luck an even bigger part of the equation.

[Sightseek]

14, 20 or 100 horses -- I don't think Rose was bright enough to give Afleet Alex the ride he needed to win that Derby.