Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #11  
Old 06-12-2006, 12:34 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

I want to show that you don’t have to be a great or even a good capper to benefit from the 5Dimes bonus. Even a dart-throwing capper would do better with 5Dimes’ 10% bonus than with Pinnacle’s 7% rebate.

Let’s use $50 bets on 4-1 shots, like before. If the track take is 16%, then a 4-1 horse will have 16.8% of the total pool bet on it.*(see below) If we are just dart-throwing cappers, then we should have a 16.8% chance of winning bets on 4-1 horses.

Betting at 5Dimes, we will win 16.8 times in every 100 bets. (forgive the fractional win!). The track payoff on a $50 bet is $250, and we are getting an extra $25 each time we win:
After 100 bets, we have 16.8 * $25 = $420. That’s still better than the $350 we’d get from Pinnacle’s 7% rebate.

A dart thrower will end up with 20% more bonus/rebate money at 5Dimes than at Pinnacle. (assuming both the 10% bonus and the 7% rebate are applicable)

--Dunbar

*Explanation of 16.8% fig:
Say the total win pool is 100,000. Then after taking out the 16% track take, there will be 84,000 left. If a horse goes off at 4-1, that means that 1/5 of the $84,000 has been bet on it. 1/5 of 84,000 is $16,800. And $16,800 is 16.8% of the original 100,000 pool. If we are average bettors, we have a 16.8% chance of winning on 4-1 shots.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
 


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.