2/19- (SA): San Luis Obispo, San Carlos (G2's); San Vincente (G2)

[Habersham000]

Originally Posted by Alan07

Indian Winter was just scratched from the San Vicente Stakes

Did you hear why he scratched? Was looking forward to watching this horse against The Factor....but anyway The Factor was impressive, not sure about the classic distance for him but I am excited to see whats next for him

[hockey2315]

The Factor could contend in the King's Bishop if they don't cook him before then. . . The second-place finisher is a very intriguing derby prospect.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The Factor could contend in the King's Bishop if they don't cook him before then. . . The second-place finisher is a very intriguing derby prospect.

Sway Away is only going to gain from that start and I agree, he's interesting. The Factor should not be sent two turns, but I'm sure he will.

[RockHardTen1985]

I know it was his first start back and all but I'm not really that impressed with Sway Away. The Factor is getting attacked early on both sides and still has enough to win. Sway Away is dead last and saving ground and just at the very end starts making up ground on The Factor. The Factor clearly has foot problems and was not a definite for this race until Monday, less then a week ago. IMO he is out rolling because he is that naturally gifted. He does not break right on top and never seems headstrong. In other words I think he will rate. I'm not convinced he cant win the Santa Anita Derby and I'm not convinced that Sway Away is really that good. 9f and 10f are totally different animals. If this guy is healthy, and Baffert AKA the GOAT, AKA my HERO can work him I'm confident he can win a major Derby prep at 9f. Im just not sure about the big one going 10f. With all that being said I also feel he is the most likely Derby contender to be done for an extend period of time or retired due to injury.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Sway Away is only going to gain from that start and I agree, he's interesting. The Factor should not be sent two turns, but I'm sure he will.

Don't you have to try? Even if ypu think the possiblity is remote that he would be successful doesnt he deserve a shot? What do you think they should do just go to the Met Mile? He might not win such a race against older?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Don't you have to try? Even if ypu think the possiblity is remote that he would be successful doesnt he deserve a shot? What do you think they should do just go to the Met Mile? He might not win such a race against older?

The way they are talking I doubt they think he can even get a mile.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Don't you have to try? Even if ypu think the possiblity is remote that he would be successful doesnt he deserve a shot? What do you think they should do just go to the Met Mile? He might not win such a race against older?

They said the same thing about 85ina50

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

They said the same thing about 85ina50

That was different, a lot different.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Hard not to like The Factor's race - he missed some training coming in and glorified sack of oats Garcia didn't need to have him so forward early on.

Horses like him often dominate the route preps and help collapse the pace at a realtive short price in the KY Derby. If he stays healthy - it's going to be a bitch to beat him at 8.5f or 9f

[pucknut]

4/5 with indian sway sratching was a belated valentine
this horse gets a mile all day long and i dont believe 1 1/4 is beyond reach with bafferts skill it may be a stretch but not compltely beyond his breeding the california best of the west rep for the derby

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The Factor could contend in the King's Bishop if they don't cook him before then. . . The second-place finisher is a very intriguing derby prospect.

I'm not sure about that - the horse who went with The Factor finished last by 18 lengths ...

They went 1:07 1/5 for 6fs - and the final 1/8th of this race was run in 13.03 over a race track that is obviously yielding crazy fast times. I thought Sway Away got a great setup and his late run was an optical illusion as they crawled at the end.

Speed is typically leathel in Derby preps at 8.5fs or 9fs. Everyone is so worried about finishing up well at the tail end of those races - and no early pressure leads to the superior horses at shorter distances dominating.

Look at the Risen Star - a lot of naturally very fast horses - and they loaf early. Machen lost the Risen Star Stakes because of the tactics used in his N1X alw win. If Howard didn't try to transform him into something he's not - he wins that alw race by 20 lengths on an easy lead - and wires the Risen Star yesterday. Instead he puts an anchor to him and earns a 24 pace figure in his alw race. Now, he's got to try winning the Risen Star closing wide into a soft pace against a pace aided horse like Mucho Macho Man who was super in the Remsen.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

When Sway Away passed him (on the gallop out,) The Factor put him away again.

[pucknut]

looked to me that garcia eased em late but i will watch again
that first 1/4 was grueling and he still had gas i like this horse alot

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Garcia didn't ease anything - he was out of horse in the last furlong.

7fs is a very tough distance when you have to run hard the whole way.

[pucknut]

watch it again my friend he was not working him at all!!!
he put the whip away and was not even urging him
i just watched it again on bloodhorse

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

When Sway Away passed him (on the gallop out,) The Factor put him away again.

Sway Away is getting some love and Im really not sure why. Just because someone knows the connections/owner does not make a horse better then it is.
Sway Away sat last off of a crazy duel, saved all the ground and only made up ground at the very end as the best horse started to get a bit tired. He has every right to get a bit tired. Its his 3rd career start, first in 2 months off of very few workouts.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They went 1:07 1/5 for 6fs - and the final 1/8th of this race was run in 13.03 over a race track that is obviously yielding crazy fast times. I thought Sway Away got a great setup and his late run was an optical illusion as they crawled at the end.

They did crawl at the end and Sway Away got a nice setup. But I think it's the kind of race he'll get a lot out of. His trainer was 6% off this type of layoff the last 5 years, with an ROI of $0.73. He showed enough speed as a 2 year old to think he'll be able to stay a lot closer than he did today as the distances increase and if we're talking about the Derby, he's the one I want out of the race.

The Factor is obviously talented, but it's hard for me to believe he's going to stretch out much farther effectively and how much longer is Baffert going to be able to keep him sound?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

They did crawl at the end and Sway Away got a nice setup. But I think it's the kind of race he'll get a lot out of. His trainer was 6% off this type of layoff the last 5 years, with an ROI of $0.73. He showed enough speed as a 2 year old to think he'll be able to stay a lot closer than he did today as the distances increase and if we're talking about the Derby, he's the one I want out of the race.

The Factor is obviously talented, but it's hard for me to believe he's going to stretch out much farther effectively and how much longer is Baffert going to be able to keep him sound?

All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.

A horse like Giacomo was everybody's standout #1 Derby prospect in California going into his 3yo year. He got wired by Going Wild at 9fs. Got wired badly by Consolidator going 8.5fs. And the Santa Anita Derby was a merry-go-round race with Roger Stein's General John B 2nd at like 87/1.

A horse like Lookin At Lucky didn't even belong on the same racetrack with Sidney's Candy at 8.5 and 9fs last year - everyone wants to finish in those races. If The Factor is healthy - he could Balto Star them in his next two

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.

I don't care about Facebook or the other stuff. If you said I had to bet The Factor or Sway Away in the Derby, I'm betting Sway Away.

Bonde isn't known for having them ready off the shelf. It was his first start in 6 months. He finished well enough to think he'll get a lot out of the race. He has more speed than he showed today...at least he did last year and I think he'll be more involved early next time.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If you said I had to bet The Factor or Sway Away in the Derby, I'm betting Sway Away.

Why in the hell would you want to bet on either of them in the Derby?

Sway Away hasn't even attempted to route yet - he's basically a very lightly raced closing sprinter with a little dressed up form now - who is way behind in the game and has to play catch up.

Maybe he really is a true router all along ... certainly possible... but why not let him prove it first next time out - while he's likely going to be wildly overbet.