11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, if she switched trainers, she'd be running in the distaff.

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

[herkhorse]

Steve, what do you think of Sara Louise?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Steve, what do you think of Sara Louise?

Honestly Tom.. at this time I have no feel for her betability or liklihood for success. (Gus loves her in here I know.) I generally stay away from horses in situations like hers, but the 'real' BC Sprint has been one race where abbreviated campaigns or 'ouchy' types can be held together or pointed for one almighty effort. Desert Stormer and Lit de Justice won and Kela was 2nd having last started in August of their respective years for instance, and Fenstermaker hadn't started Precisionist since June in '85!

Second off the layoff here from what I think was a good group in the Gallant Bloom, can't be viewed as anything but positive. And also on the plus side is that she has the 2 races that are easily good enough to win this if she's right, and the 2 very favorable results on this strip as a 2yo with Romans. You're getting 15-1, and she is sure to have a pace to run into... Can't blame anyone for latching on to her.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

Really? From the 14-hole with no competitive race other than the Test, which was a decidedly weak renewal? You nailed her at 39-1 so I'm pretty surprised you'd be satisfied with 5-1 in this spot.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? From the 14-hole with no competitive race other than the Test, which was a decidedly weak renewal? You nailed her at 39-1 so I'm pretty surprised you'd be satisfied with 5-1 in this spot.

I think she's the horse to key around. Nothing wrong with the 14 going 7f, as she and Rightly So will clear. She has that elongated sprint specialist edge I like (Maryfield-style), and in this instance, I think Guillot has done a very good job preparing her. She didn't care for the going at KEE and still was only beat 2L, and has looked terrific getting ready for this.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I think she's the horse to key around. Nothing wrong with the 14 going 7f, as she and Rightly So will clear. She has that elongated sprint specialist edge I like (Maryfield-style), and in this instance, I think Guillot has done a very good job preparing her. She didn't care for the going at KEE and still was only beat 2L, and has looked terrific getting ready for this.

I think that the only way she and Rightly So clear is if they go very fast early. Secret Gypsy and Gabby's Golden Gal are gunning too IMO. If so, C'D is either four-wide or on a fast pace or both. More than anything though, I think this is the most wide open race on the card, which is why it's hard for me to take either of the two outside horses at 5-1 and under.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

Glad to hear you also like Champagne d'Oro. I really like that horse here.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

I do like Blind Luck. I projected her to be the best 3yo filly going into this year from last. I just don't think this crop of 3yo fillies is very good.

Besides Champagne, the sprint field is a lot tougher, and for lack of a better word, saltier.

She never has shown a propensity for sprinting, and cutting her back after a year of running long, seems, well, a bit far fetched to me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Im falling truly madly deeply in love with Unrivaled Belle. In her last 4 starts she has.... Defeated every ones WORLD BEATER ON THE SQUARE... Then 3 times in a row, was put on the total chase in 5,5 and 6 horse fields. She was forced to chase/press early, and one could argue all 3 of the track she caught on those days were playing 2 speed. She did all the dirty work in those races and a lot of her kick was sucked out of her. She draws perfect, absolutely perfect in this race. I pray Kent does not ingage Malibu Prayer... Let Life At Ten, Havre De Grace or Acting Happy engage that one early. Maybe this is the same situation, just a bigger field, but I just hope Kent has learned and stalks, instead of pressing. The fact is, she will likely be 10x the price that she was in her last race. How can she be bet? She has lost on the square to the Pletcher filly's who both show up in this spot..... Maybe Joey S is wrong again, but the bottom line is at 10x the price of her last race, and maybe 10x the price of the chalk who needs to come from the clouds Im giving UB a giant shot to get first jump and win this race.

[hockey2315]

What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.