Polytrack devils advocates please respond

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Looking at a race afterwards and seeing how someone could have picked a horse is not redboarding, that is just good handicapping, see what you missed and learn from your mistakes. If I came on here and said I picked With a City and had no post to back it up then that would be redboarding.

I post my picks on another forum all the time out there for everyone to see and judge me on, not my fault you don't read it. I'll start posting them more often on here as well if that will make you feel better but I hate double posting since I know a lot of people read both forums.

I don't know where you got crickets chirping since I told you I bet Silent Times in that race. As far as my not betting With a City I capped the race in the morning so I could watch the NCAA Tournament which is a million times more important to me than some second rate Derby prep over a surface that was totally unknown at the time. I thought the whole field sucked but that at 5-1 Silent Times had the best chance of actually being a quality horse. Had I known Silent Times would have gone from 5-1 to 7-2 and With a City from 30-1 to 49-1 then maybe I would have looked harder at With a City. Fact is I totally missed the fact that it was his second race off the layoff and tossed him on his form in his first race back. Unlike you though I can go back and look at it and see what I missed rather than swearing off the surface for life and making all sorts of unfounded claims that dirt horses won't be able to run on it.

No I understand, I really do. The same reason you bet Silent Times is the same reason I bet Lemons Forever. I didn't like her so much as I HATED the huge fave sabatini. I was just looking for value and like you was not at all angry or stunned when I got beat.
Its just that redboarding is my pet peeve.

[todko]

I live about 45-50 minutes north of Polyway (Turfway), and I've played the poly probably as much as anyone.

One of the problems for the handicapper is that Polyway keeps changing the poly. Some here probably don't know, but back in March they scraped the top 3 inches off and really didn't publicize the move. I found out through some contacts in Louisville who ran horses there. This "insider" info (if you want to call it that) literally saved my posterior from possibly a losing season. The scraped it to lower the kickback and make the surface faster going into Lanes End Day. Eventually the news hit the press in a limited manner.

This was before the recent changes (scraping it again and adding a new top layer with spandex, wire/cable coverings, and heavier wax coating for the sand) during the off season this summer.

It's a tough surface to play and it's even tougher because they keep changing it. It's like trying to hit a moving target. If it was supposedly that great from the start (as Polyway and Keeneland said) then why all the changes?

I'll tell you clearly, trainers don't necessarily hate it but they also say that they have horses that just don't run on it. I've even heard the term "non-poly" horse being used.

No, I'm not going to name names. And the reason for that is, around here, if a trainer or jockey speaks poorly about a track then that same trainer or jockey is likely to be escorted off the premises and told to never return. Just ask Rodney Prescott (or even Shane Sellers [where ever he is these days]),

Circular Quay is obviously the best horse in the race. Do I have faith enough to take a plunge at those odds. Not a chance. Circular Quay might be a "non-poly" horse and to take that risk at those odds is truly foolish. Yeah, throw him in your 50 cent P4s and at the top of your dime supers, but don't bet the house on him. It's not worth it at those odds.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Ok, one of the worst things I know of, is the sickening redboarding that goes on after races here lately.
You just can't haveit both ways folks.
I'd like the polytrack proponents to respond now if they would graciously take the time to do so, but I have a strong feeling that none will answer this without covering all the bases.
Tomorrow in the 2Yo race at Keeneland we have a colt who looks truly good. Circular Quay has handled all three of his starts very impressively and with his running style and pedigree looks to be a sure fire candidate to strtech out well.
If he wins tomorrow are you guys gonna say, see they all can run on Poly?
And if he loses will you admit that many don't run on it, or will you play devils advocate and say well he wasnt proven, it was two turns, 2Yo's are inconsistent, blah blah blah.
I'd love to see some of you guys go on the record before a race, just one time. It would really be a refreshing change. Do you or do you not feel that CQ lays over that field in terms of ability and will a loss on the tires prove anything or not.
I'm not holding my breath here waiting for anyone to say anything concrete.
Its my opinion if this race was on dirt that he would win by 10 lengths. And I'm almost hoping he loses so thathe can come back in the BC and roast them. Then we can ask all those who claim that this is a suitable dirt alternative why his only loss came on the tires.

I like Great Hunter more than Quay but the short stretch at a mile and a sixteenth is a big concern to me to take any closer. I'll fully cap it later but I'm going to need to see tons of pace before I will back Quay.

The Spinster will be a better gauge of how established horses handle the stuff. Happy Ticket is a pretty consistent horse. If she runs a sub 95 Beyer and doesn't hit the top three here I'll give credence to the idea that there will be good dirt horses that can't handle the poly.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like Great Hunter more than Quay but the short stretch at a mile and a sixteenth is a big concern to me to take any closer. I'll fully cap it later but I'm going to need to see tons of pace before I will back Quay.

The Spinster will be a better gauge of how established horses handle the stuff. Happy Ticket is a pretty consistent horse. If she runs a sub 95 Beyer and doesn't hit the top three here I'll give credence to the idea that there will be good dirt horses that can't handle the poly.

Congrats and my respect to you Sniper, sincerely.
You just laid on the line your thoughts and and reasons.
You have my respect, and are truly a gentleman with courage and honor.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'm not holding my breath here waiting for anyone to say anything concrete.
Its my opinion if this race was on dirt that he would win by 10 lengths. And I'm almost hoping he loses so thathe can come back in the BC and roast them. Then we can ask all those who claim that this is a suitable dirt alternative why his only loss came on the tires.

I'm with you Oracle.
If CQ doesn't take to poly, he'll be a better price on Juvy day and be back at Churchill where he's 2 for 2 and will mow down the field.
As I said in another thread, I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't take to poly this weekend, but I just think class is going to be enough to beat these tomorrow.

[tycharles01]

Guys I say give it until tonight to talk about the poly. We will know most of the answers to our questions(Can good horses run over it, Do dirt horses like it, Do turf horses like it, does it matter if they ran over it before)

Give it a few hours and every question will be answered

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Guys I say give it until tonight to talk about the poly. We will know most of the answers to our questions(Can good horses run over it, Do dirt horses like it, Do turf horses like it, does it matter if they ran over it before)

Give it a few hours and every question will be answered

Friends don't let friends drive drunk or wager on polytrack. You gotta take away the keys, and take away the DRF.

[tiznowthegreat]

I just wish that there was more of a happy medium. There is no doubt that often very good or great dirt horses don't take to it at all and as the surface spreads to the tracks through the country, this will completely change the sport as well bred horses will struggle to find a surface to suceed on. It is not fair for horses like CQ and other great dirt horses not to have a chance on this foreign surface. HOwever, it does do wonders for the soundness of horses. Far fewer breakdowns and a horse can run more often with less strain. So it's hard to decide which is more important , many believe that the safety of horses is but to what extent - that it ruins the game or completely changes it? I'm not complaining right now though as I've had the biggest scores of my life by far betting against these good dirt horses that top trainers ship in for stakes, and sticking with the horses who train or have run on it already (With a City by far the biggest score of my life). Last week had tons of success in the stakes races with Ball Four and UD Ghetto.

I don't see how PolyTrack is going to change the game at all or the breeding. Horses will adapt and so will breeding. The only thing that will change is the names of the horses. People will say--well we will never get to see how good a horse could be because he never ran on dirt. Well the same could be said by saying--well we never know how good a horse could be because he couldnt run on Poly. Not sure if Poly is here to stay or not, but it won't ruin the the sport at all.

[TitanSooner]

Man.. this topic is like spoiled milk.. you take a sniff, you know it's bad, but you still have to take a drink.

[KonaNative]

I love Poly...There I said it!
CQ should and will win this race.. I don't care if it is run on gravel.
He is bred for the distance..Has the best Trainer and Jockey combo in the field. He won his last with little effort and should have plenty left for a strong finish.
I'm going to single him and make combo's with the 2-3-5

[SentToStud]

Nobody likes Circular Quay more than I do.

He looks tons best tomorrow.

That said, I will not bet him at any price because of the surface and I'll be looking later tonight for a modest bet-against-CQ wager in the race. If I don't find a nice "Poly-Lark" at a price, I'll pass.

The thing is, if CQ loses without a VERY big excuse, I'm 100% certain it will be the poly. If he wins big, it's sort of inconclusive because, for all I know, the plastic moves him up.

Personally, I'm hoping he loses in order to get a decent bet back number in the BCJ.

As an aside, I have trademarked the term "Poly-Lark," ala Riley and "threepeat."

[repent]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Nobody likes Circular Quay more than I do.

He looks tons best tomorrow.

That said, I will not bet him at any price because of the surface and I'll be looking later tonight for a modest bet-against-CQ wager in the race. If I don't find a nice "Poly-Lark" at a price, I'll pass.

The thing is, if CQ loses without a VERY big excuse, I'm 100% certain it will be the poly. If he wins big, it's sort of inconclusive because, for all I know, the plastic moves him up.

Personally, I'm hoping he loses in order to get a decent bet back number in the BCJ.

As an aside, I have trademarked the term "Poly-Lark," ala Riley and "threepeat."

I agree on all counts.
which is why I dont see why this crap is considered "good" for racing.
races over the surface are anomaly.
you cant take much of anything from them.

we have bred thoroughbreds for 100s of years to run on turf or dirt.
not rubber and glue.

Im watching KEE right now and it makes me want to puke.
for the first time since I started watching horse racing, Im not playing the KEE fall meet.
that totally sucks.

Repent

[repent]

Polytrack is going to kill us all at some point.

I have NO idea why any trainer with any intention of running his horse in a Breeders Cup race would prep him on a track made of rubber and glue.



Repent