Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[JJP]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It's hardly ike she tanked, it was her first Stakes race and she got third. If you want to get this ridiculous with your arguments how about the fact that she moved forward 30 points from her maiden on dirt to her maiden on polytrack. You want polytrack to fail so are trying to find reasons for it. I don't care for polytrack either but I still haven't seen an established dirt horse hate the surface. I don't buy that Barbaro or Bernardini or Discreet Cat wouldn't be great on polytrack. The only major effect I have seen is that turf horses like it a lot more than dirt.

I would say Lawyer Ron qualifies as an established dirt horse and he couldn't break his maiden over the stuff. Seen that longshots have dominated most of the stakes on the main big stakes days at TP in the past year, I'd say there's a number of at least decent dirt horses who didn't care for it.

Turf horse may like it IF they also handle dirt, but you're already talking about a versatile horse then.