Super Savings Indeed

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Looking over this race it is evident to me you won't get rich but the excitement of a Belmont with a Triple chance seems better than 75% to me...

Randall, you don't really mean 75%, do you? Fair odds of 1 to 3? You can get 3-1 on Super Saver at TheGreek, as you probably know. That would represent an edge of +900% on fair odds of 1 to 3. (You can also get Super Saver at -115 vs LAL, btw).

Originally Posted by kgar311

Im having a hard time figuring out the love affair and the world beater status thrust upon Super Saver here. Granted he won the derby, but he also got beat in the Tampa Bay Derby(outgutted), the Arkansas Derby and his first win of the year came on a sloppy nasty track in which I think he took a liking to and it wasn't like he set the track record, they walked in 205. Seems like every other horse was just spinning their wheels, except Ice Box who in my opinion should of won the race. He also won his only stakes victory over the same surface months back(horse for the course). Now we have a track where the surface will be a 180 from what he just ran on and a fast track that he has yet to win on this year. The horse is a gamer and has only been out of the money once in seven starts but the talk of him winning "by daylight" and in a "walkover" like most people on here are saying is nonsense. Nice horse but not a world beater by far and will be exposed in this race.

Well said, thought I would hardly guarantee that he'll "be exposed". I think Super Saver has maybe a 30% chance to win the race. Fair odds are around 5-2, IMO. He deserves to be the favorite, just not an overwhelming fav.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Randall, you don't really mean 75%, do you? Fair odds of 1 to 3? You can get 3-1 on Super Saver at TheGreek, as you probably know. That would represent an edge of +900% on fair odds of 1 to 3. (You can also get Super Saver at -115 vs LAL, btw).



Well said, thought I would hardly guarantee that he'll "be exposed". I think Super Saver has maybe a 30% chance to win the race. Fair odds are around 5-2, IMO. He deserves to be the favorite, just not an overwhelming fav.

--Dunbar

Yes I do, a slight move forward, came out of the race great and facing tin cans. FYI I bet SS at 3.45-1 when that opened as well as SS against LAL at even money last night....Money is where mouth is.

[lemoncrush]

I have no interest in Schoolyard Dreams. Until he proves he can run a big race on a track other than Tampa, I'll be betting against him. What exactly was his excuse in the Wood? That he isn't fast?

Jackson Bend, I'm leaning towards using. His Derby, like so many others, is a throwout. His workout on Monday indicated that race didn't phase him.
He'll clearly be forwardly placed, and perhaps not a likely win candidate,
fit enough to hit the board for sure.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes I do, a slight move forward, came out of the race great and facing tin cans. FYI I bet SS at 3.45-1 when that opened as well as SS against LAL at even money last night....Money is where mouth is.

I like the matchup bet, but still...

I think we can agree that LAL had significant trouble in the first 1/4 mile. After 1/2 mile he was 13.5 lengths behind Super Saver. At the wire he was 7.5 lengths behind Super Saver. It gives me some pause.

btw, Schoolyard Dreams will be racing against more than 6 other horses for the first time in his short career. Never had to deal with a bumping steadying bunch like this. It might not matter, but I give some weight to horses that have had that kind of experience.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Dun, SD is going to take back though so I don't see where he'll have the same kind of chance for trouble.

[clyde]

DumbBar loves me ,too.