Handicapping The Turf!

#3 Embossed (Ire) - Draw a line through his Arlington Hanicap performance because of the soft going and wide trip. Two races back, he was trapped throughout and finally found a hole to dart his way through. He's a bit of a tricky read, but I expect a real nice effort from the Irish bred.


BBB


As you will get to know as you experience the forum Gus or "Bogey" on the forum almost always gives a reason why he is betting a horse and even though I tell him he should embellish his wins sometimes he refuses and says he will bet according to what he posts. (extreme changes in track conditions, etc may warrant different strategies) Many times he evens starts with a bankroll amount and gives a running account. He doesn't need my backslapping but as I read your recent pick four pick at Kentucky Downs I was impressed with your analysis and willingness to actually propose a bet with your horse selections. Regardless of the result, your style is appreciated by me but to seemingly just ignore Bogey's anlysis may have been perhaps a little harsh as setting of the fences sometimes may be overcome when one picks up something by other factors. In this case it seemed like Gus saw something by trip analysis and packed it away saying this might be a bombshot in the near future.

Look forward to your further insights.

Miller

[timmgirvan]

God!! I Love This Site

Stud: Chutes wreck havoc and add extreme volatility to our tenet, but still when rails are out speed is flattered, and vice versa. I think Calder is H, 10ft, 15ft.

Miller: For the last few years, I play a pick 4 once or twice a week and always post my exact bet on a forum somewhere, averaging about $20 per play. I then offer a critique a day or two later on the outcome.

On Tuesdays 4, I was awful, but assumed the races would be on the hedge, and when they were not, chaos ensued.

I certainly have no animosity towards Bogie/Gus or anyone else, but do try to be objective in my analysis. Citing that Embossed did not care for the Arlington surface while wide is acceptable, but what changes here in this race?

And two back, in the 2X at Churchill, I singled Embossed in my pick 4. My recollection of his trip would be: "well placed while saving ground, got thru inside when the 70-1 shot drifted out, inherited the advantage at the pole and held sway under steady pressure". Anotherwords he had a dream trip and barely won. How tough of a 2X was it? I do not believe a winner has come out of it, and 1X fillies came home much, much faster a few races earlier.

Again this is not an indictment of anyone's handicapping, but merely another example of how the turf rail affects outcomes. Clearly the "Saturday" selection of Embossed was a shot in the dark fired blindly, but when the rail went up Tuesday all of the closers were severly compromised and did not have any chance. BBB