Handicapping The Turf!

Cardus: I too like Niall and I have heard from more than a few people who bet the horse blindly. If they ran the race Saturday from the hedge; Embossed had no chance.

P. Ann: I have been writing about the turf rail, here and there for over two decades, and most people think I am a crackpot, this was just the latest. You can see how it alters the race, completely. Check out the Delmar forum and do a search (bellsbendboy) you will be amazed at the naysayers.

Kasept: I read Powells article but do not play Gulfstream and am not familiar with the new turf course there. I own over 100 books on handicapping and only a few mention the turf rail.

As far as Embossed, and a guy named Gus "singing his praises", I must admit to being out of tune. At a glance:

Embossed:

Has not raced in two months.

Has never been the distance.

His FASTEST Beyer, is not as fast, as several of the other contenders SLOWEST Beyer!

He is 3 for 17 in his career and has been beaten by at least ten claimers in his career.

He is a non stakes winner facing a field of multiple stakeswinners, most graded.

His last race against similar he was in a six horse field at 20-1 and was trounced.

The positives: a decent half at the training center and good connections.
I would be interested in what "praises" Mr. Alonso sung?

In conclusion; the movement of the rail gave this ridgling a chance. He won because of the misfortune of ALL of the others. His twelve furlongs were just a half second faster than career maidens (fillies) later on the card. BBB