Change of Plans for Lava Man

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.

That is exactly my point, that The Tin Man showed that he has a better burst of speed than Cacique. I think that the horse with the better burst of speed is the better horse. If you've got a front-runner who has a better burst of speed than any of the come-from-behinders, he's going to beat them every time, unless he goes way too fast early on. If it's an average pace, the front-runner will win if he has the biggest burst of speed.