Alphie's Bet

[golfer]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am going to bet against this horse next time in a maiden, classic look of a hanger to me.

Obviously, next out in a maiden special, he won't be 14-1, more likely fairly big favorite, and there is usually nothing wrong with trying to beat the favorite. You may be right about him being a hanger, but he was last at the top of the stretch in a 10 horse stakes race, and passed all but one, and that one got a perfect trip, and was the fastest going in. So, I will need more evidence one way or the other to draw a conclusion.