Rachel Alexandra to Woodward

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Gander

You are out of your mind. You think a horse who to date has done nothing but win the FL Derby is going to be 4/5 against horses who have become household names (the Birds)?

No way. Not with the Birds and Kensei. Here is my early line:

QR 2/1
Mine that Bird 3/1
Summer Bird 9/2
Kensei 6/1
Charitable Man 10/1
Warriors revenge 12/1

Im out of my mind? Look at this joke of a line you just posted. At post time QR will surely be under 2-1. He will be in the 4-5 to 7-5 at best range. Kensei will be second or close third choice.

[boswd]

what you fail to take into consideration is the large crowd of people who may not bet another race until next Saratoga season that will come out and bet Mine that Bird because he won the Derby.

And anyone who has been to Saratoga know they come out in droves.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by boswd

what you fail to take into consideration is the large crowd of people who may not bet another race until next Saratoga season that will come out and bet Mine that Bird because he won the Derby.

And anyone who has been to Saratoga know they come out in droves.

He has lower beyer figures than QR though. The public bets huge beyer figures

[boswd]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

He has lower beyer figures than QR though. The public bets huge beyer figures

Sure the public who knows and understands beyer figures but not Linda, Sally, Tommy and Steve who come up to Saratoga for a day out and go to the Travers to see the Kentucky Derby winner and ask people next to them on how to bet a Pick 3 or what's the difference between a Quinella and an Exacta.

See what I mean, Saratoga especially The Traver's draws in soooo many people who don't know alot about the Sport but its a great day to go up to the Spa and enjoy themselves. Which is great.

So with all those people betting along sides the knowledgable bettor I'm guessing MTB will go off under 5-1.

[Gander]

I think name recognition has more to do with it than most people think.
But I do feel QR will be the favorite and a deserving one at that.
But Kensei take more money than Mine that Bird? I dont think so!
Care to make a wager on that Rock Hard Ten?

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by boswd

Sure the public who knows and understands beyer figures but not Linda, Sally, Tommy and Steve who come up to Saratoga for a day out and go to the Travers to see the Kentucky Derby winner and ask people next to them on how to bet a Pick 3 or what's the difference between a Quinella and an Exacta.

See what I mean, Saratoga especially The Traver's draws in soooo many people who don't know alot about the Sport but its a great day to go up to the Spa and enjoy themselves. Which is great.

So with all those people betting along sides the knowledgable bettor I'm guessing MTB will go off under 5-1.

Yup like Steve Crist said in one of his books about Saratoga, I am not quoting him exactly, is that Saratoga is his favorite meet to bet because of all the money in the pools from vacationers, etc. Folks will toss money at Mine That Bird because of The Derby. Should be a fun betting race. If I see 9/5 or better on Quality Road I may drop a couple $20's on a win bet.

[2MinsToPost]

I need to tread carefully on this race because of what happened with The Whitney - when I saw 2-1 on Commen I dropped a handful of $20's on a win bet because I thought that was the best value I had seen in a while on as close to a sure thing. We all know how that ended, but of course he was what 8 years old?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I need to tread carefully on this race because of what happened with The Whitney - when I saw 2-1 on Commen I dropped a handful of $20's on a win bet because I thought that was the best value I had seen in a while on as close to a sure thing. We all know how that ended, but of course he was what 8 years old?

Its a tough racket Curt, aint it?

I made the mistake of think Commentator was "dead on the board" last year when he was sent off at 5/1 and crushed the field. This year he was equally as "dead on the board" at 2/1 and ran to it. I thought he should have been 6/5 against that field, albeit he hasnt been all that good as an 8 year old.

9/5 would be a tough price to take on any horse in the Travers, especially on a horse (QR) who lacks the conditioning all the others have. I can see the potential for greatness, but 9/5 or even 2/1 would be a huge bet against for me in this particular race.

I've learned to appreciate the talent both Birds and I think when this race is over one of them will be in the Winner's Circle, and maybe even a bird exacta.

Leaning towards Mine that Bird and may take a shot at a win bet if his price is good.

[tector]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Yup like Steve Crist said in one of his books about Saratoga, I am not quoting him exactly, is that Saratoga is his favorite meet to bet because of all the money in the pools from vacationers, etc. Folks will toss money at Mine That Bird because of The Derby. Should be a fun betting race. If I see 9/5 or better on Quality Road I may drop a couple $20's on a win bet.

I think you guys are dating yourselves a bit here. For example, look at Saturday's betting.

On track $4.2m

Off track $14.7m

And how much of that $4.2 is the "idiot" money--maybe half, at best? (I think quite a bit less, actually).

Sorry, out of $19m, $2m of dumb tourist money cannot push the odds around that much (you also have to consider that some of the dumb money is going to wind up in the right spots, if even for the "wrong" reasons).

It is 2009, guys, not 1989.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tector

I think you guys are dating yourselves a bit here. For example, look at Saturday's betting.

On track $4.2m

Off track $14.7m

And how much of that $4.2 is the "idiot" money--maybe half, at best? (I think quite a bit less, actually).

Sorry, out of $19m, $2m of dumb tourist money cannot push the odds around that much (you also have to consider that some of the dumb money is going to wind up in the right spots, if even for the "wrong" reasons).

It is 2009, guys, not 1989.

While I completely agree with you I wouldn't think it's ridiculous to say that the same foolish dollars that will be bet on MTB because he's the Derby winner on-track won't also be wagered at simulcast facilities.

He's going to be a woefully short price relative to his chances of winning IMO.

NT