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Old 07-23-2009, 09:52 AM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
It would logically seem like the toughest post position of all at Saratoga would be breaking from post 10 going a mile on the inner turf.

Field size is limited to just 10 at the mile distance on the inner - and with a fairly short run to the first turn - and tighter turns - it would seem a nearly impossible draw.

I have post stats going back to '96 though, and post 10 wins at 17%. The second highest win percentage is just 12%.

From '96 through '07 - it led post 3 15% to 13% for best win percentage.

Last year, extreme outside post 10 won 4 of 16 races at a mile on the Inner Turf ... and finished 2nd twice more... including Seven In a Row missing by a neck at 33/1 odds from post 10 in a race where the three extreme outside most post positions made up a trifecta that paid $3,305.00

Field size shouldn't be limited to 10 at a mile on the Inner. The numbers say that there is no grossly unfair disadvantage to being marooned wide out there with that short run into the tight first turn. Logic might say otherwise .. but 13 years of data trumps logic.
Nice nugget of info.. Thanks
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