Thoro-Graph ROTW-VA Derby (+ Toga Seminars)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My pleasure! It's a very helpful analysis for anyone really interested in TG, and I completely saw the race the way Alan did.

There's a number of horses in this race whose career development is very distinct on the sheets. Note how Nicanor's races are alternating with the reaction last notably worse than the reaction two back. As Alan explains, he's still feeling the effects of the big, fast effort 4 back, and was headed for problems.

Hold Me Back has the two efforts (the paired 2's on Poly) that are notably faster than anything anyone else has run. A return to that level should he take to the grass OK, and there's no reason to think he won't, makes him the likely winner.

As Benewitz notes, both the Pletcher runners are in positon to run well at square prices, and the obvious other contenders seem OK but pretty underlaid.

Anyway, no need for me to reiterate what was written... Point is that it's a great write up just to help people understand the slightly different, and frequently (highly) profitable method TG users employ to wager.

I liked Hold Me Back, but the only thing that was giving me pause was he seems to be a horse that will take a lot of money for making his first start on Turf and I read that they put him here because the "race came at the right time" and winning a major race on dirt is their real goal. Now granted, this is coming from an owner whose interest is in making a stallion, but do you think that could mean they think he fits more on dirt?