6/10: Belmont (4th-9th)

[Bobtailnag]

Don't care much for the first 2 races.

R3 - Both chalks look like fire sales. Dutrow's hoss just kept getting worse as he dropped her from level to level. She's back after 6 months off and Dut's trying to dump her for 15K. Same with Tagg - when he gives up on a horse, he gives her away.

Let's swing for the fence - Win Millions 10/1 broke poorly in her debut but once out of the gate stayed on pace with the leaders through fast fractions for 15K claimers, then passed the field in a sustained drive down the stretch. If she breaks better she won't need that sustained drive. I'm not crazy about the jockey.

Also taking a hard look at Flo's Honor 15/1 who had 3 Places before winning a MC25K last out - and Cl15K N2L is just where you'd expect her to win next.

R4 - Fairy Wand covered 6Fs in 1:09.4 in last outing and that is plenty good enough to win this. Chalk but she's my top pick.
Roaring Ghost would have won her debut with a clean trip. Don't know if she's fast enough or if she can handle the grass but I like her effort in that race.
Linda Rice brings in Ten Carrot Nikki for her first effort on grass. Same questions as with Ghost but I remember Rice's success in turf sprints at The Spa a couple years back.

Adding those to the pk-3

R5 - Even Raise - chalk but has to be the top pick - it doesn't matter if there's a quick pace or a slow one - he sit's right behind the leader then pounces down the stretch.

R6 - One of the top two will probably win - I don't want to rely on three singles in a row in the pk-3s so I'll tag both.

R7 - Hot Money's pace figs in his mdn win are equal to the pars for this level. He seemed to like the surface and the turf is where Clement does his best work.

R8 - Tough call in here for me. Mr Triester likes the distance (6 for 12) and will be trying to wire the field. Levine's not doing well at the meet and just maybe he'll break through with this one because Levine is best with early speed.
Coal Play will probably try to keep Mr T company around the track but I think he has less of a chance to prevail because he looks like he's better going longer.
Raptilian Smarts sounds like a sobriquet for his trainer. D Dutrow claims him for $15k then reels off 5 straight wins as he climbs the class ladder - just missing his 6th straight while trying this level. He has the running style to take advantage of a speed duel and there's a good chance there will be one. Gotta use him in the pk-3s.

R9 - Chalk Boots Ahead's only try on turf was last and got caught a couple strides before the wire, but what looked like a show of staying power was really the result of slow early fractions (:49) meaning he wasn't as good as he looked. I think there's some opportunity to cash a nice ticket here if I'm right.

I'm going with 8/1 Courageous Cat whose 2 races this year were encouraging as he was able to stay close to the pace for 6Fs in both races - and his first career race was as a 2 yr old on turf where he covered 6Fs in 1:09.8 which is very encouraging. He has a high BRIS turf potential fig (119) and an excellent turf trainer in Mott and good turf jock (22%) in Kent D. 8/1 just makes him look that much better.

Will add Peace Wine to the pk-3s tic if he goes - went hd & hd almost all the way to the wire last out and has a good turf potential fig (110). Not wild about Weaver's 5% record and Coa is also named on Boots so this one will probably scratch.

[Kasept]

BELMONT - 6/10


Track: MUDDY
Turf: YEILDING

Turf Races: 4, 6, 7, 9
Inner: Set at 27 Ft
Widener: Set at 18 Ft

DAILY NOTES

RACE # 1 - OFF TURF
RACE #4 - MOVED TO INNER TURF

SCRATCHES

1

1 (poe) Classic Love Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW, TRIFECTA, or SUPERFECTA
2 Delta Weekend Early
3 Cori's Star Early
5 Artistic Talent Early
6 Kaleigh Rose Early
8 Fourth Chapter Early
10 Decorated Court Early


2

1A Smarty Karakorum Early
7 Glen Early


6

11 Kanwicat Early
12 Driven by Seattle Early


7

1 Slick Wheelie Early
11 System Restore Early


8

1A Pictural Early


9

1A Silver Jazz Early
2 (poe) Boots Ahead Early
3 In My Prayers Early
6 Chromospere Early

[hockey2315]

Am I the only one who likes Smart Enuf?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who likes Smart Enuf?

I absolutely love Smart Enuf.

NT

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I absolutely love Smart Enuf.

NT

Smart Enuf is viable with natural development from 3 to 4... Donk as clever as they come. The fact that he starts him short kind of said to me he's working him back towards his preferred trip. Tough group.. I left Brecciate off the P4 and it's likely a mistake. Each of the quad races have opportunities to reach out for. I felt 6 deep in the 6th, 7th and 9th were all appropriate...

[declansharbor]

I'm thinking Smart Enuf needs one coming off of the shelf, although one can construe his work string as he's ready to fire. Will be on one of my tickets.

I'm drawing a line through Cardiff Road's last, and hope he will improve 2nd off the bench. His 2nd race back at this distance may be good enough to take this, even if it is a full year ago.

[NTamm1215]

I will be playing a Cardiff Road and Smart Enuf exacta. CR's last was a toss.

I tried to tell myself many moons ago that Donk's horses rarely need a race off the bench.

NT

[CSC]

Smart Enuff is possible however he's shortening up to a sprint and I'm just not sure he's going to have enough pace to run at in this one. I'm not a huge backer of betting on Leo O'Brien trained horses but I like to use an angle on turf courses with cut in it, and Pegasus Tommy D. looks like he might have the advantage here with this angle.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Smart Enuf is viable with natural development from 3 to 4... Donk as clever as they come. The fact that he starts him short kind of said to me he's working him back towards his preferred trip. Tough group.. I left Brecciate off the P4 and it's likely a mistake. Each of the quad races have opportunities to reach out for. I felt 6 deep in the 6th, 7th and 9th were all appropriate...

I think hitting the ALL button in the 7th isn't inappropriate. Really the only one that can't win this is the 7, Harmonic Man, and even he has a couple freaky performances albeit on dirt at Mountaineer. The favorite was impressive in his turf debut but the stretchout from 6 to 7 could be his undoing.

[philcski]

Bruce Levine continues to be overbet and ice cold in the first.

[philcski]

I'll throw one out there for the 7th, Key Victory. Made a premature but nice move to make the lead last out at 32-1 while very wide the whole time, gets a positive rider switch and a couple decent works in between. think he's got a real shot at the 20-1 ML.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who likes Smart Enuf?

Dream trip early and then never allowed to run late. . .

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobtailnag

Don't care much for the first 2 races.

R3 - Both chalks look like fire sales. Dutrow's hoss just kept getting worse as he dropped her from level to level. She's back after 6 months off and Dut's trying to dump her for 15K. Same with Tagg - when he gives up on a horse, he gives her away.

I like your approach to this race, while both horses (the Tagg & Dutrow) can win they wreak of suspect goods and they are going to be wonderfully overbet for a bettor who wants to take a stand against them. I like The Donk horse 'He Ain't Easy'. Decent off track pedigree and positive + 60 days off numbers make him an interesting alternative and my pick.