Belmont Fractions

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by CSC

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.

Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:

Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.

He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.

Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.

Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:

Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.

He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.

Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.

My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by CSC

My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.

I don't get the argument that he couldn't have beaten Summer Bird. The horse went 22.92 from a mile to 10 furlongs and then 26.36 from 10 furlongs home. You don't think if he sat in a more reasonable 24 seconds or even in 23.5 that he would have had tons more in the tank to go more than 26.36 for the final two furlongs?

[SniperSB23]

Just for comparison sake, the fractions from 8 to 10 furlongs for recent Belmont winners:

Da Tara - 25.25
Rags to Riches - ??? 24.0 ish
Jazil - 24.76
Afleet Alex - 25.64
Birdstone - 24.84
Empire Maker - 24.54

Anyone have Rags PPs in front of them to know how many lengths back she was at the mile?

I don't understand how people can look at those and not see how absurd the 22.92 was. Summer Bird and Dunkirk ran faster quarters there than any recent Belmont winner because of Calvin's ridiculous move.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't get the argument that he couldn't have beaten Summer Bird. The horse went 22.92 from a mile to 10 furlongs and then 26.36 from 10 furlongs home. You don't think if he sat in a more reasonable 24 seconds or even in 23.5 that he would have had tons more in the tank to go more than 26.36 for the final two furlongs?

I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.

What we do know is that Summer Bird could have probably kept running another furlong or 2 if need be, he was the only horse that was not spent after the race, I do believe had Kent Gotten him out earlier he would made this discussion a mute-moot one. The horse was feeling so good, Kent had his hands full down the backstretch that no one talks about him running up on heels causing him to check/steady atleast twice by my count. It was hardly a perfect trip in my opinion just as it was not a bad trip either. He was simply the best horse for this type of race/track/distance.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.

DrugS might be the best person to explain the raw numbers things but it doesn't matter as the raw number or any number thing is not the way to go. First, races are complex events that are not merely explainable in terms of how fast they're run (either in total or in sections). If these were time trials, then I'd be all for speed (and even pace) figures; but they're not. These races are about how they're played out. There are a number of 'types' of races and subsets of these types. Once you look at a few thousand of them, like I have, you start to get a sense of what's 'normal' and what isn't. Which horses ran well and which didn't. I could put a ton of effort into trying to fit races within my methodology, as all the figure makers apparently do, or I could let the horses in the race indicate to me what exactly is happening.

Thinking of these races in terms of numbers fails for a number or reasons: 1) numbers bias one's interpretation of the race: fast splits are supposed to indicate one thing, slow splits another, YET, we constantly (especially on poly and turf) see that these supposed truisms are really wise tails, as there are countless counterexamples. Refer back to the slow pace biased interpretations of the Gotham, for example. 2) numbers is just one way of looking at the race; that set is a subset of a larger set, the race itself, and thus is not comprehensive.

You of all people should be aware of some of this **** as you play quite a bit of turf and poly. You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. (The Sartinistas get some of this, as do the Match Up guys, but they don't do it within the context of the race.) This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.

As you know I've stated before the Belmont the reasons why I liked Summer Bird and why I didn't like the chances of Mine That Bird. While as outrageous at the time it may have seemed I truly believed Summer Bird was going to win the Belmont even if Rachel Alexandra was running(I wish she had), he was the best horse from a value standpoint, from a distance profile, running style, in terms of a horse coming up to a race, all the reasons you want to see in a horse coming up to a big race. You mention bursts in races, and my problem with Mine that Bird is on a dry track he has he has only one quick burst to expend in a race, which may work on turf courses, but something that in my opinion not as effective in a dirt race at 1 1/2 at Belmont. Summer Bird on the other hand has a efficient grinding style that can be sustained (watch him gallop out) and that worked to his advantage Sat, it is my belief with the blinkers added for this race he could have layed closer to the pace as he basically dragged the Kent around the track until he was given his cue, to suggest that MTB would have done the same thing is a leap, he cannot race close to the pace or certainly hasn't been successful at it to this point. These are 2 vastly different horses and really I think Borel is being made a scapegoat for perhaps losing 1 placing at most. I am confident if they ran the race over again, Summer Bird would win over 80% of time unless Ice plans on having Rosier back aboard. The only way he could lose it is if he was too far back. Finally Kent D didn't win the race, Summer Bird did, all Kent D did was have him closer to the pace than Rosier did with the aid of blinkers...and steer him in the right direction.

[the_fat_man]

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.