Mind that Bird last race before the derby

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Have you watched the Sunland Derby? Mine(d) that Bird sat about sixth for the first 3/8's or so, moved up on the outside shortly after the half, then nosed his way in front at the top of the stretch only to fold like a cheap suit in the last 1/16th. He was outfinished badly by another horse (Kelly Leak) who basically chased Mine(d) that Bird for the first 3/4, then ran around Mine(d) that Bird like he was standing still. This is not a prep that generally would inspire one to believe they had just seen the Kentucky Derby winner, no matter what the fractions were.

i didn't say it made him the winner - i only said that the 1st 2 calls of that race were the fastest of any derby prep at 1 1/8 - he was part of that pace

now go to the derby - what did he run the 1st 4f in - maybe :50 mayber more ? does anyone have that info

he jogged around the track and came home in :47 and change , he had already shown in his last race he was capable of running that number for 4f

[cakes44]

Every horse in training can run that number for 4 furlongs. Running that number in the slop after running for 3/4 a mile already is what has everyone puzzled.

[slotdirt]

First, he wasn't part of the pace in the Sunland Derby. Watch the race. The two horses in that race who led through the first half finished 11th and 12th, respectively. He was no more a part of the pace as Kelly Leak was.

Secondly, I don't even know where to begin on this idea that just because a horse may have run a 45-ish 4f at an entirely different part of a completely different race that the horse can just automatically take that half mile number and just magically apply it to a the stretch run of the motherf-ing Kentucky Derby.

Seriously, dude, stop looking for the answers to the Derby in the PP's. They're not there. Honestly. Everybody else is just as fooled as you are.

[slotdirt]

Danzig, I'm not trying to give the horse credibility, but I am pointing out just how insanely quick that last half mile is for a Derby winner, regardless of the track conditions. Remember how great Barbaro looked back in 2006? Mine(d) that Bird beat his last half by something like a full second.

[gales0678]

slot - what happens in the Preakness , if he can pair up like 3 yrs old do , someone is going to have to jump up to beat him no?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

First, he wasn't part of the pace in the Sunland Derby. Watch the race. The two horses in that race who led through the first half finished 11th and 12th, respectively. He was no more a part of the pace as Kelly Leak was.

Secondly, I don't even know where to begin on this idea that just because a horse may have run a 45-ish 4f at an entirely different part of a completely different race that the horse can just automatically take that half mile number and just magically apply it to a the stretch run of the motherf-ing Kentucky Derby.

Seriously, dude, stop looking for the answers to the Derby in the PP's. They're not there. Honestly. Everybody else is just as fooled as you are.

so true, the speed figure fools never accept outcomes like these. it proves their goofy numbers to be crap. a horse is an athlete, not a machine. i wish numbers could be assigned to performances and tell the future of a horses next peformance. it just does not work that way. the fig's will give winners from time to time but its not as reliable as all the jokers selling them want you to think. this is the beauty of horse racing, the track was crap, two main contenders did not even race and a couple logical horses were "done" when the gate opened. not to mention the winner loved the slop and ran like hes never run before and may never again. can't put a number on that, don't even try. in all sports efforts at times defy logic, thats why the game is played. if everyone knew who was going to win. who would really care ? the fact is no one knows and mathematics does not really apply.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What speed figure fools aren't accepting the outcome in this thread?

i don't know about this thread other then the guy that was trying to explain this horses final half. but, i've read beyers crap after he got burned at GP. believe me people are looking at these numbers and crying. they just don't work that good from track to track or suface to surface. if they did people would be winning all the time and it would not be gambling. i'll look at them but by no means is that the only reason to bet a horse. if it were the highest fig would win alot more than it does. some look at the numbers religiously which is ridiculous. any horse can win, with the right set-up and effort. a number can't tell you that. using your imagination though might. if every 6-5 shot with highest number won , i would hate racing.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i don't know about this thread other then the guy that was trying to explain this horses final half. but, i've read beyers crap after he got burned at GP. believe me people are looking at these numbers and crying. they just don't work that good from track to track or suface to surface. if they did people would be winning all the time and it would not be gambling. i'll look at them but by no means is that the only reason to bet a horse. if it were the highest fig would win alot more than it does. some look at the numbers religiously which is ridiculous. any horse can win, with the right set-up and effort. a number can't tell you that. using your imagination though might. if every 6-5 shot with highest number won , i would hate racing.

Didn't War Emblem have the highest Beyer going into the 2002 Derby? And he paid $43.00 to win, go figure.

[slotdirt]

I want to punch myself in the nads for continuing to post on this thread, but I'm not talking about figures or anything else, I am just discussing the insanity that was Mine that Bird's closing speed on Saturday.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I want to punch myself in the nads for continuing to post on this thread, but I'm not talking about figures or anything else, I am just discussing the insanity that was Mine that Bird's closing speed on Saturday.

well what can you attribute it to? surely it has to be something? it just can't be one of those unexplained events