Weekend Beyers (Rachel 108; Bird 105)

[pointman]

Originally Posted by booner

This is along the lines of what I was looking for. I had heard all the discussion about IWR's jump (breeding for dirt imparticular) that made his improvment in the Gotham logical.

Would it be incorrect to assume that MTB would produce a comparible performance the next time he hits the slop? Of course I realize that pace, trip, etc. would play a factor, but just from a raw handicapping standpoint, you would have to take a hard look at him?

Once again, I'm not doing this to try to say "MTB is a Triple Crown horse if the track turns up sloppy the next 2 races", but instead to look at using this angle for other races and other horses.

Booner, I am no expert on Beyer figures, but have a fair understanding and others, such as Drugs may be better suited to answer such questions than me.

Certainly it is logical to conclude that MTB likes the slop and some of the improvement could be attributed to that and that you should move him up when he gets a muddy surface again. It is just one tool amongst many handicapping tools you can use although you would like to see a bigger sample than one race before making the conclusion, but you can certainly find some longshots based on seeing good races under certain conditions.

A good example would be Accredit from earlier on the Churchill card on Saturday, I am doing this from memory, but I gave Accredit a chance to win that race at a decent price based upon the fact that he was 4 for 4 on off tracks and had run some good speed figures if I remember correctly. However, just because a horse has not run well in the off going once or twice does not mean they don't like it, the horse may have had traffic problems, bad trips, etc.