Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Probably was.

He sure ruined any possible chance Bellamy Road could have ever had in that race.

Probably ruined Afleet Alex as well.

I thought Afleet Alex was being mismanaged and would have been a monster one-turn sprinter miler ...

I don't know if I thought that because he was defeated in each of his first three route attempts by the stellar trio of Proud Accolade, Wilko, and Greater Good.

Or maybe it was his Sprinter/miler pedigree combined with the fact he swerved like a drunken sailor to run down Devil's Disciple in the Hopeful.

Either way - great peice of training by Tim Ritchey. I was wrong on that call.

[CSC]

Interesting I didn't notice this before but I went back and took a look at Regal Ransom's races from Dubai and I concluded he is a much better horse than I first originally gave him credit for. I don't think the gap between him and Desert Party is as large as widely thought of and with this year's possible pace scenario, he's a very interesting horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Don't think Desert Party doesn't have early zip if he is asked for it.

He worked an 1/8th in 10.20 at Calder last year - en route to beating out highly impressive debut winners Munnings and Mr. Mistofflees for the honor of being the sales topper at the nations best 2-year-old sale.

For a son of Street Cry (who won the Stephen Foster going 9fs at CD with a 118 Beyer) and out of a Tabasco Cat mare (TC was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill with a 115 Beyer) ... he sure does have some good zip.

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Hard to argue that anything that tops FT Calder is really a slow developer either. So there goes the "but what if he's vastly improved?" card.

[NTamm1215]

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

The Sanford wasn't great but he did win the race. For Regal Ransom, I'll toss the Norfolk as disliking the poly- he was 7/5 in the race for what it's worth.

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

JITD would be a nice fit for races like the Dwyer, Lone Star Derby, etc. not as a sacrificial lamb in the Kentucky Derby. I'm guessing he was a private purchase out of the Arlington race- and shockingly, Pletcher hasn't moved him up an inch.

[CSC]

Regal Ransom's 93 debut beyer is only 3 points lower than POTN best lifetime beyer and better than any of Square Eddie's. Numbers aside he's going to be a good horse at a good price.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Regal Ransom also came out of FT Calder. 10.20 work for him. Nice to see like almost all of the pace in this race came from the same sale.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

[CSC]

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

I hope you do well in the Derby tossing them out.

However, like I said, tossing them out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai in my opinion is foolish. If you want to use Godolphin's 0-5 record in the Derby as your background, go right ahead, and think hard about the respective chances of those five horses who failed.

Sure, their chances would be better if they spent the winter in the USA but it's the owners' decision, and that's that. If you think it's a bad tactic, fine...I don't think it's a good one either. But know that they've gone about preparing Desert Party and Regal Ransom in a way that they did not try in 1999-2002 when their other five horses started.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Don't think Desert Party doesn't have early zip if he is asked for it.

He worked an 1/8th in 10.20 at Calder last year - en route to beating out highly impressive debut winners Munnings and Mr. Mistofflees for the honor of being the sales topper at the nations best 2-year-old sale.

For a son of Street Cry (who won the Stephen Foster going 9fs at CD with a 118 Beyer) and out of a Tabasco Cat mare (TC was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill with a 115 Beyer) ... he sure does have some good zip.

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Hard to argue that anything that tops FT Calder is really a slow developer either. So there goes the "but what if he's vastly improved?" card.

Times are changing, I keep reminding myself of this when looking at this year's race. Derby myths = traps. It should be my signature to remind me of this fact. A horse will win going synth to dirt 1st time and a horse will win from prepping in Dubai one day. Will it be this year? I don't know, but I'm partial in thinking RR is a real nice horse.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Who trained DP at two dude?