Blue Grass & Ark Derby

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What is kind of interesting about Empire Maker is that he has never yet sired a single horse to run an offical triple digit Beyer figure.

Yet - he had a Santa Anita Derby favorite and Wood Memorial 2nd choice run on the same day last week.

And his oldest foals have just turned 4. Oh, wow, he only had 6 SWs in his first crop, including a dual G1 winner (on Poly and Cushion), a G2 winner (at Aqu) and a dual G3 winner (at OP and CD). And none of them is very fast, according to you, they just beat all the horses who ran against them in those stakes races.

Obviously, if he doesn't sire a 'fast' horse in his first crop, he never will be able to.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

And his oldest foals have just turned 4. Oh, wow, he only had 6 SWs in his first crop, including a dual G1 winner (on Poly and Cushion), a G2 winner (at Aqu) and a dual G3 winner (at OP and CD). And none of them is very fast, according to you, they just beat all the horses who ran against them in those stakes races.

Obviously, if he doesn't sire a 'fast' horse in his first crop, he never will be able to.

but did any of them run a triple digit beyer? that's what drugs mentioned-not whether he had stakes winners or not.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's been bred to a whole bunch of amazing mares ...

I guess we should be impressed that he has managed to sire a few wonderful horses like the spectacualar Country Star, Pioneer of the Nile, Acoma, and Imperial Council?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I know ... I'm forgetting Mushka.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

And his oldest foals have just turned 4. Oh, wow, he only had 6 SWs in his first crop, including a dual G1 winner (on Poly and Cushion), a G2 winner (at Aqu) and a dual G3 winner (at OP and CD). And none of them is very fast, according to you, they just beat all the horses who ran against them in those stakes races.

Obviously, if he doesn't sire a 'fast' horse in his first crop, he never will be able to.

Seriously, do you really feel as if he's lived up to expectations?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Seriously, do you really feel as if he's lived up to expectations?

Depends on what your expectations were. If you were wanting rafts of precocious, sprinting 2yo winners, well tough luck - he never won a race at less than 8f and he ran like a natural stayer. He may have gotten 'elite' mares, but he may not have gotten the type of mare who best suited him; this a mistake many commercial breeders make - choose a stallion for the catalogue page instead of taking all factors into consideration. He had iffy feet - did these 'elite' mares share this trait? Recipe for disaster. 'Elite' often means they produced or are closely related to classic-type horses themselves, which is a great recipe for a St. Leger winner, but not for the US racing program. (This was the problem with Secretariat's early stud career; he needed speedier types, like Lady's Secret's dam.)

My point is, it is entirely too early to write off Empire Maker as a possible sire for a classic-winning type horse.

[the_fat_man]

Rather than debate some of DrugS comments, I've just attach 2 charts for the Blue Grass.

This 1st is the chartcaller's version. This is the less accurate of the two and one could understand why someone looking at it MIGHT think to consider the race in terms of NUMERIC PACE, and conclude that the pace was slow and THUS favored those running towards the front, rather than just seeing the race for what it was: a SUPERIOR performance by the winner.

The 2nd chart utilizes TRAKUS data and is thus about as accurate as it gets. Here we can clearly see that the race, except for the winner, collapsed late, with only Hold Me Back and Terrain, the two off the pace runners, gaining in the lane relative to the winner. GEE, slow pace and the race collapses?
TRAKUS data also shows that General Quarters ran MORE in terms of ground covered than ALL the others in the race.

In terms of finishing position, here's the ground covered, in FEET, by the others in relation to GQ.

-7
-74
-41
-51
-14
-33
-24
-39
-63
-55

We note, then, that ONLY Hold Me Back was COMPETITIVE in terms of ground covered, and that MASSONE, courtesy of the ASININE RIDE by Johnny V on the pacesetter, ran a WHOPPING 74 feet or 8.5 LENGTHS LESS than the winner.

Not to worry, all this is EXPLAINABLE by the SLOW pace.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I've never seen a wide trip on Keeneland's synthetic track that I didn't like.

I scored with General Quarters - I just don't think his margin of victory over Hold Me Back and Terrain would have been as wide as it was had the pace not been the crawl it figured to be on paper.

[Bobby Fischer]

Good work Fats

Did you See Rutherienne actually not run the Least distance yesterday? miracle ... - must be the slow pace as well

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've never seen a wide trip on Keeneland's synthetic track that I didn't like.

I scored with General Quarters - I just don't think his margin of victory over Hold Me Back and Terrain would have been as wide as it was had the pace not been the crawl it figured to be on paper.

I scored with him in the Sam Davis.

Let me get his straight, DrugS: GQ took advantage of the SLOW pace, which worked AGAINST the closers. But the REST of the field, which backed up in the stretch, wasn't helped by the slow pace?

[Bobby Fischer]

add trying to tell who simply hated the surface apart from who was affected by the pace

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me get his straight, DrugS: GQ took advantage of the SLOW pace,

Yes.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

which worked AGAINST the closers.

More pace would have aided Hold Me Back and Terrain imo.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But the REST of the field, which backed up in the stretch, wasn't helped by the slow pace?

The ones on it were helped ... and could have faded a little more with a quicker pace.


Pace isn't as strong a factor on the outcome of a race on syn and turf as it is on good ole fashinoned dirt .. but it still plays something of a roll in the outcome.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes.



More pace would have aided Hold Me Back and Terrain imo.




The ones on it were helped ... and could have faded a little more with a quicker pace.


Pace isn't as strong a factor on the outcome of a race on syn and turf as it is on good ole fashinoned dirt .. but it still plays something of a roll in the outcome.

There nothing controversial here. I agree with it all.

Now, don't you think that I Want Revenge, bad start and all, actually got a perfect trip, in terms of setup, in the Wood?

[packerbacker7964]

I throw the Poly Track results out of the window when firguring when a horse runs back to dirt. I hate the stuff, I will always hate the stuff and I'll never be able to figure the stuff out. With that being said screw every track that has it. I've quit betting the races on it all together. I'll bet Oaklawn, The Duct, Gulfstream, Belmont and Toga to name a few and leave the other's to themselves. Comparing the Blue Grass to the Ark. Derby is crazy to me. Where have the Best Three-Old colts raced the last 5-7 years. OAKLAWN that's where. Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones and Hard Spun.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964

I throw the Poly Track results out of the window when firguring when a horse runs back to dirt. I hate the stuff, I will always hate the stuff and I'll never be able to figure the stuff out. With that being said screw every track that has it. I've quit betting the races on it all together. I'll bet Oaklawn, The Duct, Gulfstream, Belmont and Toga to name a few and leave the other's to themselves. Comparing the Blue Grass to the Ark. Derby is crazy to me. Where have the Best Three-Old colts raced the last 5-7 years. OAKLAWN that's where. Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones and Hard Spun.

i'm not crazy about poly-but they still payoff when you cap the races right. we had a great two days at arlington, and i'd love to go back and give it another whirl. and you know i'm a traditionalist and prefer dirt.