Best current Derby future odds

[Dunbar]

Going into today's races, futures have shifted a bit. Here's the best I can find: (unless otherwise noted, these are the odds at TheGreek.)

Charitable Man* 40.5
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Dunkirk 8 (WSEX)
Friesan Fire 9.25
Giant Oak 52.5
Hold Me Back* 30 (Bodog)
I Want Revenge 4.65
Mafaaz* 40.5
Musket Man* 25.5
Old Fashioned 16.15
Papa Clem 40 (Bodog)
Pioneerof the Nile 10.15
Quality Road 8.85
Regal Ransom* 35.5
Terrain* 38.5
Win Willy* 22.5
Mutuel Field("All Others") 4.65

Odds have dropped considerably on Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem and Friesen Fire. Odds have gone up a bit on IWR, QR, Win Willy, and All Others. The effective takeout from this combined line is 13.6%.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Here are the best odds I could find today. Unless otherwise indicated, the best odds were at TheGreek.com.

I Want Revenge ** 5 (Bookmaker.com)
Dunkirk ** 6.25
Quality Road ** 6.25
Friesan Fire ** 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile ** 8.25
Papa Clem ** 15.25
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15
Desert Party ** 24 (Bookmaker.com)
Musket Man ** 28.5
Square Eddie ** 33 (Bookmaker.com)
Hold Me Back ** 35.5
General Quarters ** 38.5
Regal Ransom ** 40.5
West Side Bernie ** 51 (Bookmaker.com)
Flying Private ** 85 (Bodog)
Giant Oak ** 52.5
Mine That Bird ** 65.5
Charitable Man ** 85.5

If these horses were the only ones that could possibly make it to the Derby, the combined odds would represent a 3.3% takeout. So the actual takeout depends on what value you put on "all others" at this point.

As of Apr 12, Wynn's futures had QR at 7-1 and Flying Private at 100-1. (Other Wynn futures were inferior to the list above.)

--Dunbar

PS--I don't know why those asterisks showed up with the names. They aren't in my EXCEL table.

[Dunbar]

Since yesterday, the odds on some of the favs have come down, the odds on some of the longshots have risen:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

All odds are at TheGreek except Dunkirk's 6-1 which is at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com). CRIS/Bookmaker and Bodog haven't had lines up today.

The above odds have an overall vig of 13.6% plus the chance that a horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

Changes since yesterday: (Bookmaker and WSEX have their odds back up)

Friesan Fire is now available at 7-1 at Bookmaker. (Bookmaker also had IWR briefly at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 6-1 today, but those were knocked down.

West Side Bernie is available at 51-1 at Bookmaker

Atomic Rain is available at 99-1 at Bookmaker.

Here are the updated best available future odds:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6 wsex.com
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 7 Bookmaker
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5

Unless otherwise noted, the best odds were at TheGreek. (fwiw, Bodog still has no line up)

The vig from those odds is 11.7% plus the chance that some horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Whoa! Just noticed that 5Dimes has put up some Derby futures. 5Dimes now has the best price on 7 of the 8 lowest odds horses. (all except IWR):

Dunkirk 6.5
Quality Road 6.25
Friesan Fire 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5
Papa Clem 22
Chocolate Candy 21
Desert Party 26

Combining these future odds with the ones above (and eliminating Giant Oak) results in a vig of 2.8% (plus the remote chance any horse not listed wins the race.)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Best odds this morning:

I Want Revenge 4.5 World Sports Exch
Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes
Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes
Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes
Papa Clem 22 5Dimes
Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes
Desert Party 26 5Dimes
Musket Man 33 5Dimes
Square Eddie 40.5 TheGreek
Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek
General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 40.5 TheGreek
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek
Charitable Man 85.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek

Odds have dropped on IWR and Musket Man, otherwise no change from yesterday. I removed Take the Points from the list because Pletcher said he is unlikely to enter.

--Dunbar

Effective "takeout" is 2.8% plus chance some other horse wins.

[Dunbar]

Wynn Las Vegas beats that list with these horses:

Quality Road 7-1
Flying Private 75-1
Atomic Rain 125-1

--Dunbar