Stardom Bound

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But ... she's going to be facing proven dirt horses. So if you have a horse that's 50/50 to like the dirt against a bunch of horses WE KNOW can handle it, isn't that a negative especially at the short price she might be?

I don't see it that way. I see it as she's got the ability so that puts her at an advantage. All things being equal, she beats them. What they better hope for is that she doesn't handle it so great so it can be an equalizing factor. When I look at a race, I like to look and see who I think is the best horse and then try to see what possible disadvantages they will have to overcome. Take for example Big Brown in the Florida Derby last year. People make a big deal about him being in a far outside post. To me, that disadvantage wasn't big enough to overcome the tremendous talent advantage he had over his competition. In other words, if all else was equal, then the post would have been a pause for concern. But all else wasn't equal. If all else was equal for Stardom Bound going into the Derby, the dirt would be a bigger concern. But I don't think all else will be equal. Also, I'm not looking at it from a wagering perspective so her price in Louisville is irrelevant to me. Come Derby day, I might love her for the win but bet against her because of her price and the potential to make money in other ways.

I think it's also worth noting that it's often been said by many horsemen that Churchill's track on Derby day is nothing like it is on other days. There have been many examples of horses that have trained well over it and didn't run well in the Derby. Just because a horse may like dirt doesn't mean they'll like Churchill on Derby day. Holy Bull hated it.