Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

Disagree- WaW ran her race, and wasn't good enough. She ran well, Johnny V maybe moved a little early but Forever Together would have mowed her down either way- Leparoux really never asked her for her best. Whether she was better than Sealy Hill is certainly debatable, although the run Sealy Hill put in when clear was impressive.

The pace was moderate but it was destructive because it was pretty contested. Then again, the Euro shipper was coming out of a frontrunning mile race so it's no real shocker she packed it in at the quarter pole...

It seems we need to rehash this. Does FT WIN if she makes the 1st move with WaW and Visit? Does FT win if she moves when SH did? Probably not as the 'pace' at that point was pretty hot.

My point here is not that WaW is better than the winner (in general) but rather that if she gets a decent trip, in this case, doesn't move EARLY, she's in position to withstand the closers. By waiting and forcing the OTHER closers (other than Visit) to move with/before her she dulls their kick. A more patient jock gets her this trip.

Not putting this on you, but why is this so difficult to understand? The winner is a very nice horse, certainly the best in the race (though before yesterday, her ability to get 10F was in question) but she also got a very nice trip, having the benefit of running AFTER everyone else. This was a 'flow' race: moving too soon spelled doom for WaW and Visit and, to a lesser extent SH. Would think that this would be evident to some others as well.