7/30: Saratoga (Day 7; C/O)

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me just add that I had to make four selections for Talking Horses tomorrow....and not one of my picks are the same as Steve's. Now, that's no criticism of Steve, and may be a good sign for him, but it does point out the total randomness of " handicapping " that race.

But, what do I know, as you are confident in that race but confused in the others.

If Bobby Frankel saw this thread two plus months ago you would have saved him a lot of trouble and First Defence could have been frolicing in a field for some time now.

[ateamstupid]

I understand that the fifth is a scrum, but I found it interesting that I chose the same four horses Steve did. That's all.

I feel comfortable using those four horses in the pick four, and the $16,000 claimer confuses me. Sorry if that bothers you.

I thought First Defence would develop into a top flight sprinter and I was wrong. I wish you wouldn't act like nothing I say has merit because of that wrong opinion, but if you feel the need to invalidate everything I say, go ahead.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

5 - 3, 5, 8
6 - 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
7 - 8, 10, 11, 12
8 - 4
9 - 1, 5, 7
10 - 3, 4, 9

$1080

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I understand that the fifth is a scrum, but I found it interesting that I chose the same four horses Steve did. That's all.

I feel comfortable using those four horses in the pick four, and the $16,000 claimer confuses me. Sorry if that bothers you.

I thought First Defence would develop into a top flight sprinter and I was wrong. I wish you wouldn't act like nothing I say has merit because of that wrong opinion, but if you feel the need to invalidate everything I say, go ahead.

I loved the highlighted part. Stick to the tough guy routine....it suits you much better.

I get it.....and if you guys found the same random four horses it is pretty funny ( and statistically amazing ). It's pretty amazing that I landed on four completely different horses as well. It's also funny that I included Saratoga Steve.....and neither of you guys did. For what it's worth, his second dam was a strong turf move up producer, and I am particularly partial to her foals as I made a score on one a few years ago when Mig won with her at 30:1 in its turf debut. The horse was Faraway Legend but you probably remember her sister, Call Nine One One, a little better. Western Fable is a full to two or three turf winners and the dam of Mr. Petersson won 123K on the turf while going 5 for 9 on that surface. He's also a half to Exonerated who exploded in his turf debut...sprinting at Belmont a couple of months ago.

That's a reasonable amount of turf breeding for a NY Bred 2YO turf sprint and also three tough horses to completely leave out of any play. One, or even two, maybe....but all three?

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me also add that Dougie is a terrible guppy-like play in a race like this. As I pointed out about the favorite in a similar race on Monday, who flopped, do you think when Zayat paid $250K for this one as a yearling he was hoping for a turf sprinter? Plus, these connections are massively overbet in 2YO races, and why would you want a favorite in these kind of crapshoots as well?

Then, you two also went to Todd Pletcher and Linda Rice's firsters. Congrats. You found the other two overbet horses too. Todd vastly underperforms ( versus his odds ) in these situations for what it's worth.

I was wrong, however, as Sweet Groom was one of my four. Like Steve, I'm partial to the Very Un Stable. It's the greatest name.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me also add that Dougie is a terrible guppy-like play in a race like this. As I pointed out about the favorite in a similar race on Monday, who flopped, do you think when Zayat paid $250K for this one as a yearling he was hoping for a turf sprinter? Plus, these connections are massively overbet in 2YO races, and why would you want a favorite in these kind of crapshoots as well?

Then, you two also went to Todd Pletcher and Linda Rice's firsters. Congrats. You found the other two overbet horses too. Todd vastly underperforms ( versus his odds ) in these situations for what it's worth.

I was wrong, however, as Sweet Groom was one of my four. Like Steve, I'm partial to the Very Un Stable. It's the greatest name.

I totally agree with Andy that the obvious horses are too.. obvious. Would love to see one or more of them drop out of this later today. Saratoga Steve (12-1), Western Fable (6-1) and Mr. Peterson (12-1) were the more "clever" horses that I was looking at for this... But as I said on radio last night, P6 tickets shouldn't go in until you've had a chance to evaluate the odds board.

And speaking of Very Un Stable, I cannot in my memory recall Joe Gioia starting horses with anyone but Del Carroll.

[blackthroatedwind]

The sad thing about these races as even the betting isn't a big help.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sad thing about these races as even the betting isn't a big help.

I agree, we can see who will get bet. Now, if Leo or Cedano get bet early and often, I will take pause.

Maybe I'm not following the posts properly through my early morning fog, but my version of the Form has the Owner of Sweet Groom listed as Guillermo Berrios. I don't see Very Un Stable in the race.

I'll go back an re-read, maybe you moved on to a different race on me.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I loved the highlighted part. Stick to the tough guy routine....it suits you much better.

What the hell are you talking about?