Journeyman Handicapper Question Bel 8th

[the_fat_man]

If you watch races, it can get very frustrating watching jocks that hurt rather than aid the horse. Samyn is just about the worst at trying to rate (restrain) a horse. Other jocks, Desormeaux would be the perfect example, are able to rate while still allowing the horse to fully stride out. The horse is striding out, just not at the speed it wants to. In this way, the horse is restrained YET comfortable/relaxed.

Samyn restrains a horse to the extent that it's unable to stride out completely/comfortably. He has such a tight hold on the horse's head that it's a strain for the horse to move and it uses EXTRA energy in doing so. A good example of this would be Emma's Candy, running tomorrow. In her last race, the filly is not only wide but she's basically JUMPING on the backstretch as she tries to get a full stride out. As a result, though she puts in a decent run in the stretch, she collapses late. Samyn needs to discover a looser rein. Give the horse enough of its head to have a chance to run when it counts.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

hes not that strong anymore.[.its not all jockeys fat man ..i had no problem with the winner in this case ..and thought the 1/10 moved abit late or they would have easily been part of the exacta.. as for the j s .. its much harder to hold a horse back with some constent smooth tention..ie a shock absorber ..vs holding on with wieght ..

[docicu3]

I just disagree that "trip handicapping" is everything especially when horses off layoffs are completely ignored especially when you see that a horse over an 12-18 month period is developing and may have made enough of a forward move to be competitive in a field where previously they were not. Statements like 2 horses in a field are capable of winning are proven wrong time and time again.

Describing the ride of a racehorse like it handles with the precision of a sports car does not accurately respect the unknown response of the animal on that day. There are more variables to use and respect than is described here.

A combination of speed or race figures, film, field size and class and cycle of the horse not to mention early speed and closing ability are essentially the equation and there is no substitute or short cut for most races. Sometimes you see things on film as I did yesterday with "Roll the Di", othertimes it may be the slope of the TGH curve of development for a lightly raced horse etc, etc.

Tape is nice but it is one piece of a more complicated puzzle.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by docicu3

I just disagree that "trip handicapping" is everything especially when horses off layoffs are completely ignored especially when you see that a horse over an 12-18 month period is developing and may have made enough of a forward move to be competitive in a field where previously they were not. Statements like 2 horses in a field are capable of winning are proven wrong time and time again.

Describing the ride of a racehorse like it handles with the precision of a sports car does not accurately respect the unknown response of the animal on that day. There are more variables to use and respect than is described here.

A combination of speed or race figures, film, field size and class and cycle of the horse not to mention early speed and closing ability are essentially the equation and there is no substitute or short cut for most races. Sometimes you see things on film as I did yesterday with "Roll the Di", othertimes it may be the slope of the TGH curve of development for a lightly raced horse etc, etc.

Tape is nice but it is one piece of a more complicated puzzle.

We get it: trips aren't comprehensive for you. Then again, since you're essentially clueless to anything but an obvious trip, why would it matter to me? But thanks for stopping by and repeating yourself.

Moreover, how many bows are you going to take for picking a 7:2 shot? A 7:2 shot that I caught at 12:1 her previous race by tripping?

Nothing personal.

I liked being eliminated 5 seconds into the race due to Samyn's stranglehold. The least he could do was give me a 5% chance of hitting the board.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

We get it: trips aren't comprehensive for you. Then again, since you're essentially clueless to anything but an obvious trip, why would it matter to me? But thanks for stopping by and repeating yourself.

Moreover, how many bows are you going to take for picking a 7:2 shot? A 7:2 shot that I caught at 12:1 her previous race by tripping?

Nothing personal.

You post this crap about how "knowlegeable" you are here but I don't see alot of cashed tickets here Fatman!! You've got nothing else to do but sit home pigging out staring at races on your free California Racing account while you "imagine" jockeys thoughts and intentions day after day and you post these BS evaluations after the races are over and you want accolades for Red Boarding races day in and day out. Pace Advantage has rooms full of guys like you or were you outed there as well.

Go ahead Fats post a 10-1 ML winner the night before the race is run like the last one I put up and maybe I'll tell you that you know something but as long as your posting BS about how every jockey in the NY colony is a stiff and how you know the proper truth about how to ride these animals your nothing
but a fraud who hasn't shown bupcus for all the garbage your flinging here these last few months.

Nice call on the Bishop last week Fat's......didn't hear much about that 4-1 ML loser after the fact. You want to pound your chest about winners you predict you might have to actually post one before the race Red Board Geek.

And oh yeah......It is completely personal!!!!!

[blackthroatedwind]

The Fat Man has posted a bunch of winners here and has sent me quite a few by PM. Plus, his charts and posts demonstrate a huge understanding of the game. His obnoxiousness does not obscure his tremendous knowledge.

What prices horses are in the ML is irrelevent. All that matters is what they pay when you bet your money.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Fat Man has posted a bunch of winners here and has sent me quite a few by PM. Plus, his charts and posts demonstrate a huge understanding of the game. His obnoxiousness does not obscure his tremendous knowledge.

What prices horses are in the ML is irrelevent. All that matters is what they pay when you bet your money.

That is certainly open to debate but I am glad to see he has your love and devotion. I have never seen you express such obvious affection for someone and their thoughts here.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Fat Man has posted a bunch of winners here and has sent me quite a few by PM. Plus, his charts and posts demonstrate a huge understanding of the game. His obnoxiousness does not obscure his tremendous knowledge.

What prices horses are in the ML is irrelevent. All that matters is what they pay when you bet your money.

I appreciate your support.

What I appreciate even more, however, is that you're around to lend some 'credibility' to my take on the game. It gets tough arguing the obvious without much chance of consensus. Agreement from you is assurance that I'm on the right track.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Nice call on the Bishop last week Fat's......didn't hear much about that 4-1 ML loser after the fact. You want to pound your chest about winners you predict you might have to actually post one before the race Red Board Geek.

Below are my comments from the Bishop's Back thread. Where exactly do I pick him?

posted 6/16 by me

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

All I come away with after watching that race is knowing that he probably wins with a perfect trip. Which tells me nothing; and the obvious trip will cut his odds next out.

posted 7/03 by me

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

BUMP

In tomorrow.

Isn't it 'obvious' that I DON'T like the horse?
Try again, Doofus.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Below are my comments from the Bishop's Back thread. Where exactly do I pick him?

posted 6/16 by me



posted 7/03 by me



Isn't it 'obvious' that I DON'T like the horse?
Try again, Doofus.

Make a play that wins or shut your pie hole or cookie dough hole or whatever it is your stuffing past the drool from your orifice this AM. Post a winner here glutton goon....PM are just that Private Misses....and yeah your comments on Roll the Di didn't make it here somehow "last time was the time to play here IMO".....

Post a winner BEFORE the race low life.....that's how the game works Jabba!!