Pick 4

[philcski]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

I think im going to go pick 4 crazy untill i hit one, i just got done handicapping and here is what i have for thursday... good luck everyone

Belmont

early.......2,3,4/2,6/2,3/1,6,9......$36
late........3,4,5/5/2,4,7,9/2,6,8.......$36

Churchill

early.....1,4/1,2,6/2,3/6.....$12
late......6,7,8/4,5,6/1/2,5,8,10.........$36

Word of advice, especially after yesterday... it is VERY difficult to hit P4's on a $36 budget. Why not take the $120 you have here and play it on the one you like best of the four? For example, you caught a nice bomb in the first leg of the P4 yesterday, but were too thin to complete the sequence which cost dearly.

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I understand what you mean, but if a horse you don't have gets pounded down to even money, I know I would be second guessing myself if I don't have the horse.

I like JCS' strategy here on firsters. If I like a firster and he drifts up, especially from lesser connections, I wouldn't take him out of my play. If a Pletcher firster I don't necessarily like gets pounded to 6/5 I'm not going to add him just because of that.

The one thing I'll add to that is if a firster from very obscure connections gets hammered I'll rethink to add. Once or twice a year at SAR some Finger Lakes based trainer will get a hot NYB.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by philcski

I like JCS' strategy here on firsters. If I like a firster and he drifts up, especially from lesser connections, I wouldn't take him out of my play. If a Pletcher firster I don't necessarily like gets pounded to 6/5 I'm not going to add him just because of that.

The one thing I'll add to that is if a firster from very obscure connections gets hammered I'll rethink to add. Once or twice a year at SAR some Finger Lakes based trainer will get a hot NYB.

My strategy to a T. I do not allow myself to get swayed off a firster I like.

Because I almost exclusively play horozontally, I rarely check the win odds. I often find myself scrambling to find win odds mid-race because I never took the time to look between races.

Advice to JCS, if you are having that much difficulty with P4's, scale it back to P3's and DD's. It almost seems like you have jumped in the deep end before you learned to swim. If you are looking for books other than Christ's to help formulate tickets, it's time to take a step back and hit the basics of handicapping. String together some good days hitting DD's and P3's before jumping at every P4 that comes down the pike.