Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[Gander]

Okay, who do you think the people that were going to bet War Pass are going to bet now?

Zito obsessors: Cool Coal Man.
Front runner lovers: Bob Black Jack or Recapture the Glory
Maybe just the best horse trained by the best trainer, Big Brown.

I say those 4 horses are going to take the majority of the cash that was to be bet on War Pass maybe in this order...

1) Big Brown- Logically the best horse trained by the guy with more tricks up his sleeve than a magician.

2) Cool Coal Man- Some people just want Zito to win this badly and dont wouldnt want to be without a win ticket if Zito were to win this race.

3) Bob Black Jack- Hes been the "4th most mentioned California horse", if you will. Gayego and Colonel John are hot, hot, hot in the media right now, but El Galo Malo's stock has plummeted and probably wont even run in the Derby.

4) Recapture the Glory- the least because not many people even know the Illinois Derby is a race.


I think Big Brown goes off 2/1 and Colonel John about 5/1, and guess which one of these I think is the bigger underlay? Yup, Colonel John at 5/1.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the people who bet this way make up a miniscule amount of the win pool.

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Gander

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

Ya Zito and Kid Rock go way back . . .

[Gander]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Ya Zito and Kid Rock go way back . . .

LOL, you'd be surprised who Nick knows. Ben Afflect brings over 100K with him when he goes. Phil Mickelson, also a huge gambler. Doesnt make bets under 50K. Judd Nelson (ex breakfast Club & St. Elmos Fire actor) loves to plunk down thousands on this race as well.
I dont believe that this kind of money wouldnt affect pools. There are only a few trainers who rub elbows with the real celebs, and Nick is one of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think all of those people you speak of must have all bet very early on Imawildandcrazyguy last year.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think all of those people you speak of must have all bet very early on Imawildandcrazyguy last year.

That was Andy Serling.