Zayat trouble

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ "moment of clarity".

Emphasize "moment".

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Zayat's handling of Massive Drama ranks second to only the connections of Denis of Cork as worst handling of a Derby prospect. Massive Drama could be an okay sprinter. Instead he decides to send him to Dubai, where he is trounced and now he is under consideration for the Derby? Good idea.

I actually had no problem with the way Denis Of Cork was handled at all.

They put the horse in what they believed to be the race that represented the path of least resistance - he was an odds on favorite in a Grade 2 stake with a 500K purse after all.

Could they have predicted a paceless race - with an outside post - over an inside-speed track beforehand?

I guess it was public knowledge that the pace setter after a 1/4 mile was run had 7 wins and 3 seconds in the 10 races on the '07 Illi Derby card - but that still didn't mean the track had to be like that again the following year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Just because it didn't work doesn't mean it was a bad idea.

I will never knock someone for putting their horse in the most logical lucrative spot.

How many softer spots for 500K will there ever be than the '08 Illi Derby?

[cakes44]

The Pennsylvania Derby and the West Virginia Derby would answer that question. However, that answer is neither here nor there because they aren't derby preps.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The fact that it didn't work means it was poor management.

Since when did you become such a results queen?

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

They went from the possible Derby favorite after the Rebel, to not even making it maybe a few weeks later. It was very poor management.

I'm not sure he'd have beaten Sierra Sunset in the Rebal - SS didn't have Silver Edition pestering him the whole way like in the Southwest - but I'd say it was a coinflip between him and SS for the Rebel win if he goes there.

In order to be the Derby favorite over Big Brown - he'd have needed to win the Rebel, and wheel back and win the Ark Derby impressively. That was unlikely.

Denis Of Cork has four career races - and three Beyers in the 80's. Come on Hossy - he was no killer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

However his campaign this year should be what people look NOT to do in the future. How can you deny that?

Basically, all that happened was that the connections decided to pass the Rebel because they didn't want to run him two more times in a short window before the Derby. Fine, if they think they have a horse who can compete in all three legs of the triple crown series, I don't blame them.

Now, you are left with The Wood or The Illi Derby as your options.

You pass on the bigger tougher field, and go where you will be the odds on favorite in a short field.

What is it you disagree with most - not putting in two more starts before the TC Series or opting for the Hawthorne race over the Wood?

Unless you can predict unforeseen pace scenerios and track biases long in advance - the horse was spotted correctly.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I hear ya - and I thought it was pretty amusing how they changed plans every other day.

If he just wins the Illi Derby at odds on - isn't he in a 3-way scramble with Pyro and CJ for 2nd choice in the Derby? - and isn't he better suited to see out all three races in the series?

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The fact that it didn't work means it was poor management. They went from the possible Derby favorite after the Rebel, to not even making it maybe a few weeks later. It was very poor management.

So you are saying in order to have good management, the plan you lay out has to work in the world of horse racing. Nothing in this business is 100% certain. Just because a plan didn't work, doesnt mean it was poor management. Correlation is not causation.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So constantly changing your plan in an effort to baby the horse up to a 20 horse affair is a good plan of attack you think? Well it certainly worked. They might be on the outside looking in now.

Plans change at some point. I don't think they babied the horse at all. They felt the Illinois Derby was the most logically race. Why send him to New York to face War Pass, why send him to Oaklawn and face a 12 horse field. He raced in a Grade II that has produced some fine runners in the Derby. The plan didn't work out for them. It was a nice try and DofCork may get into the Derby. Time will only tell.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The fact that it didn't work means it was poor management. They went from the possible Derby favorite after the Rebel, to not even making it maybe a few weeks later. It was very poor management.

...

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The plans changed because they changed them, plain and simple. They absolutely babied him. I don't expect a moron like yourself to comprehend it, but they did. And in the business world, a good try that doesn't work is also known as a failure. There is no reward for a good try. Success is what matters.

You seem to equate failure with a bad idea. It's as if the world of probability doesn't exist. It's like saying every horse that doesn't win the Derby is the victim of poor choices made along the way.

A good try that doesn't work may be known as a failure in the business world, but it's not necessarily scorned by successful investors or successful gamblers. The outcome is secondary to whether the logic was sound. If I'm confident the logic was sound, I'll do the exact same thing next time a similar situation comes around.

I understand you think that the logic was highly UNsound in the handling of Denis of Cork. But offering the outcome as proof that the plan was bad is faulty thinking, IMO.

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Not learning from mistakes is faulty thinking IMO.

IMO, the only mistake they made was not raising hell after the post position draw.

They let themselves become victims.

[Danzig]

i don't understand why the went to new york and then illinois. if they wanted to skip the rebel, fine. but he had a win at oaklawn, and the ark derby pays a million. even without a win at a track he already ran well on, he'd still get a much better check for hitting the board then he would anywhere else.
at any rate, it's done now.