W/E BSF's: Blue Grass 92; Arky 103 (!?)

[Kasept]

CJ,

Previous/Ark Derby.. Can't be..

Gayego: 91-103
Z Fortune: 82-102
Tres Borrachos: 83-94
Indian Sun 79-92

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ,

Previous/Ark Derby.. Can't be..

Gayego: 91-103
Z Fortune: 82-102
Tres Borrachos: 83-94
Indian Sun 79-92

If I give the race a 103, it bumps the pace up to a 124...yeah, right...no freaking way. I thought Moss did Oaklawn and surely looked at the pace if so. I'm don't know how he could possibly think that is right.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If I give the race a 103, it bumps the pace up to a 124...yeah, right...no freaking way. I thought Moss did Oaklawn and surely looked at the pace if so. I'm don't know how he could possibly think that is right.

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by pick4

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

You can still use pace though to determine if the track sped up during the day and you need to split the variant. His point was that simply by looking at the pace figures for each race you can see the evidence why the variant should have been split. To suggest the race had a pace of 124 and the two horses on that pace finished 1-3 shows how ludicrous the decision to not split the variant is.

[SentToStud]

Amnyone see a BSF or Rag or TG for the 9th race Turf Sprint at Gulf on Saturday?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

I know how Beyers are made. I doubt there are 10 people not part of the Beyer group that know more about them than I do.

Most times I agree with them, but this isn't one of those cases. The people making Beyer speed figures do look at pace when making the variant. They aren't using pars for the most part, so they try to figure out what the horses should have run based on history and the way the race set up. This is especially true of Randy Moss because in addition to making Beyers, he makes MOSS pace figures. He puts those pace figures alongside his Beyer number, though he does convert it to the same scale. That number you see next to Moss pace figures is the Beyer, just in a different format.