Any respect for Pyro now?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Whoa... lighten-up, this is just a message board with casual conversation. This is what I mean about these boards, you put people behind a keyboard, and their speak becomes so confrontational rather than discussion-like.

I was merely adding to the conversation that Santa Anita has been a closers paradise this spring. Want the data? PM me... I'll show you a real nifty site that will prove it.

More on yesterday:

In Race 2, Power Blitz came from 12th to win by 1 3/4 lengths at 20-1. The fractions were a scorching 23 2/5, 48 1/5...ouch. The favorite sat third and backed-up to 9th. The top three were 12th, 6th and 9th at the pace call.

In Race 4, Greg's Gold came from 5th to win the co-feature, although the splits were quite fast.

In Race 8, 3-1 Tangled Tango sat third, and is the only horse from the top half of the field to win yesterday.

In Race 10, All Man was 7th at the pace call and went on to by a nose at 6-1. He beat-out 5-1 Paul's Hope who was 4th at the quarter, and 6th at the half.

As for Tiago, well, he doesn't count, because he was already proven on dirt. But as for Heatseeker, I give you Hystericalady. We can keep going back and forth on horses and their affinity for surfaces, but that would require another thread.

I know the DATA, I have watched every single race their this spring.

What about Hystericalady, she is a grade 2 placed horse on the synethic at 4 years old, and a grade 2 winner on the synthetic at 3 years old, assuming Hollywood had it in 2006, which I think they did.

While the jocks finally figured out about 14 days ago that you couldn't win on the lead, the track has played more fair in recent days.

Synthetics are a slower track, this I don't argue with, and you have to have fitness to actually do well over them, a perfect description to that is how Art Sherman has gone from a 25% winning trainer to barely about 5% this year, if that.

Oh, and easy with the comments in regards to internet toughness, I never confront on the hilarious internet, but ridiculous comments in regards to a Colonel John having a closing trip, when he was never farther then 4-5 lengths back, and he was only steadying because he was following Yankee Bravo up the rail. Horse got an above average trip yesterday and took advantage of it, and will get the same trip in the Derby, because of his style.

[Travis Stone]

Since March 20 Santa Anita averages about 15% wire jobs. By comparison, Gulfstream is 25%, Hawthorne is 29%, Oaklawn is 29%, Tampa Bay 23%...(The major qualifier in these stats is that short priced horse winners are not counted in the calculations.)

71 races over the cushion track, just 11 wire winners, 5 horses came from second to win from those 71 and 31 (43%) of the winners came from the top half of the field. On just one card was there more more than 1 wire job.

Regardless of lengths, those stats are quite compelling.

Furthermore, anytime a horse does contest the pace or have a say in how the early portions of the race are run, he is closing on that pace. 20 lengths or five lengths... doesn't matter. Brownie Points was no more than 5 lengths off the pace in the Apple Blossom yesterday, but she was still a closer in the way the race was run.

I'm not saying Colonel John had a tough trip, or a perfect trip, but that he was another in a long line of horses to win at Santa Anita in the recent weeks from off the pace.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Since March 20 Santa Anita averages about 15% wire jobs. By comparison, Gulfstream is 25%, Hawthorne is 29%, Oaklawn is 29%, Tampa Bay 23%...(The major qualifier in these stats is that short priced horse winners are not counted in the calculations.)

71 races over the cushion track, just 11 wire winners, 5 horses came from second to win from those 71 and 31 (43%) of the winners came from the top half of the field. On just one card was there more more than 1 wire job.

Regardless of lengths, those stats are quite compelling.

Furthermore, anytime a horse does contest the pace or have a say in how the early portions of the race are run, he is closing on that pace. 20 lengths or five lengths... doesn't matter. Brownie Points was no more than 5 lengths off the pace in the Apple Blossom yesterday, but she was still a closer in the way the race was run.

I'm not saying Colonel John had a tough trip, or a perfect trip, but that he was another in a long line of horses to win at Santa Anita in the recent weeks from off the pace.

IM not trying to argue just present another way to look at the race. Kinda like an owner telling a jock he wants the horse running 2nd or 3rd on the nackstretch with no regarde as to the time. Im no expert but in my opinion is that SA has been a more than fair track.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jpops757

SA has been a more than fair track.

What is fair though? I'm not saying SA is unfair, I'm just saying it's been tilted a bit towards closers, not that it's necessarily good or bad.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What is fair though? I'm not saying SA is unfair, I'm just saying it's been tilted a bit towards closers, not that it's necessarily good or bad.

More often than not the best horse with the best trip wins. Less wins by horses that win with horses loose on the lead and fewer wins as a result of a race falling apart,

[Thunder Gulch]

The Colonel John synthetic to dirt switch becomes one of the biggest questions in handicapping this year's Derby. At least they are sending him to Churchill instead of Keenland, so at least we can watch him work on dirt. I was there when Tiznow won the Classic at Churchill, so I don't see why CJ can't handle that surface.

I still like Pyro because of his explosiveness when asked, and his back class tells me he may not have run his best yet this spring.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The Colonel John synthetic to dirt switch becomes one of the biggest questions in handicapping this year's Derby. At least they are sending him to Churchill instead of Keenland, so at least we can watch him work on dirt. I was there when Tiznow won the Classic at Churchill, so I don't see why CJ can't handle that surface.

I still like Pyro because of his explosiveness when asked, and his back class tells me he may not have run his best yet this spring.

it isn't a question, colonel John will be fine, he is bred to even be better on the dirt then the synthetic/turf

Also, to add a comment about Recapturetheglory, the horse has zero shot to make the top three in the Derby, and I would be surprised if he has a shot to reach the top 10.

ET Baird in this Derby is a godsend for me because he is f'n going to the lead, and will go 22 to get it, bad news for horses like Mr. Brown, War Pass, Bob's Blackjack.....

[johnny pinwheel]

horses like war pass and j be k are better off running short. these guys get a 2 yo to win big races and right away they are thinking "derby". war pass will probably never win a race over 1 mile 1/16 unless its sloppy or a bad field. the track on saturday was very fair i did not see a bias. i saw war pass throw in the towel on the turn, he was tired. j be k, tale of ikati,visionaire and yankee bravo came out of races with pyro and all ran ok. that tells me pyro is pretty good ,the final times don't matter and people get worked up over it. the longer the distance the more that horse has. colnel john seems to be the same way . they don't flash speed or get the hype but they pack a punch in the final 1/8, thats how you win the derby. the speed freak horses that get all the attention win about 1 in 10 derbies if that. i went down there a few years ago and like a fool bet bellamy road, my friend bet giacomo guess who was buying dinner ?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

it isn't a question, colonel John will be fine, he is bred to even be better on the dirt then the synthetic/turf

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

Does he really need to improve given the trip that he is going to get in the Derby, he will be in that covented 5-10 part of the pack hopefully 2w-3w (rail is always garbage unless you are Borel who just seems to always get through)

Personally, I will be using alot of synethic horses on Derby Day, obviously I am going to go off prior dirt form also, but I think to just toss horses that have never seen dirt will be a large mistake.

What are CJ's odds on Derby day, if War Pass goes, War Pass is probably 7/1 given the distance questions, Big Brown is probably in the 4/1 stage, Pyro is in the 5/1 unless this weekend is crazy impressive, so could CJ be in the 10-12/1 range?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

well armed ran huge in dubai.