Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #9  
Old 08-04-2006, 04:03 PM
Thunder Gulch's Avatar
Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Southland Greyhound Park
Posts: 1,846
Default

You can make an educated guess at putting a number on a trip, but not an accurate one. The "path's wide" approach has its shortcomings. It doesn't account for biases and the fact that many horses run better off the rail. Plus, the big downside for me is that you upgrade a horse who is coming off the pace and forced to take the wide trip to reach contention. These types will always be going wider than early speed that avoids going wide, and we all know early speed rules dirt racing.

Now the sheet guys are smart, really smart, but I think they oversell the value of the "number" when the real value of their work is their methodology of presenting it in sheet fashion and finding patterns for the horses and trainers. I've heard a lot of pro's talk about that being the case along with the fact that Sheet figures aren't bet as much as Beyers at many venues, so the prices are a bit better.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
Reply With Quote
 


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.