Tampa Wednesday 04-02-08

[Bigsmc]

Pick 4:

Race 8 - CLM 16k About 1 Mile Turf
Some familiar faces in this one...

2 - Big Tex - Rounding into form and a threat to lead them around.
3 - Manchu Prince - Brief freshening and a quick breeze may have done the trick. Best grass jock on the grounds doesn't hurt (that was for you Scav).
4 - Castle Concert - Turning back to a mile may be what the doctor ordered.

Race 9 - Alw 20200 N1X - 6.0f Dirt

5 - Time Tells All - Massive effort in his maiden breaker. Can regress some and still be these.
4 - Flatter Me Blue - Will be winging it.

Race 10 - Alw 16000s About 5.0f Turf

1 - Secret Fever - Firing bullets for his return.
4 - Loushe - Trouble in last at GP. Back to his proper level.
5 - Never Absent - Short freshening, chased Loushe in last.
9 - Lite Brigade - Another that is razor sharp in this wide open heat.
10 - Blind River Fox - Along with the 9, has enough juice to get position going into the turn.

Race 11 - Mdn 12500 1mile 40yds Dirt

9 - Commercial Free - Should stay closer on the stretchout.
5 - Kinfolk Moonshine - Mata will send.
2 - Eventjolie - Huge drop after an even MSW sloppy try.
6 - Legatango - Should apreciate the added ground.

Small Ticket:

2,3/4,5/1,4,5,9/2,5,9 = $48

Big Ticket:

2,3,4/4,5/1,4,5,9,10/2,5,6,9 = $120

[Bigsmc]

Tampa Bay Downs

Wednesday, April 2, 2008
TRACK: Fast
TURF: Firm
Portable rail: at 12 feet

Weather: Partly Cloudy � low 80�s

Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $12,521.94


RACE 1 #5-+1
#6-Scratched(Lady Thunder)
Post Time 12:26

RACE 2 #8-+2
Post Time 12:52

RACE 3 No Changes
Post Time 1:20

RACE 4 #1-jockey D. Amiss
#10-Scratched(Pompey Chimes)
Post Time 1:49

RACE 5 (Turf)
#11-Scratched(Brickell)
#12-Scratched(Prospectors Legacy)
#13-Scratched(Florida Boy)
#14-Scratched(Stevebiscuit)
Post Time 2:18

RACE 6 #9-jockey C. Dooley
Post Time 2:47

RACE 7 #8-jockey D. Amiss #9-+2
Post Time 3:16

RACE 8 (Turf) #1-jockey W. Martinez #7-+1 #11-Scratched(Stormy Ray)
#12-Scratched(Dakota Max)
#13-Scratched(Wave the Baton)
#14-Scratched(Can�t Spell)
Post Time 3:45

RACE 9 #1-Scratched(Inside Zone)
#2-Scratched(Cinemud)
#6-Scratched(Out in the Open)
Post Time 4:14

RACE 10 (Turf)
#3-Scratched(Silver Peagus)
#7-Scratched(Armored Truck)
#8-+2 #11-Scratched(Straightavarius) #12-jockey C. Poleo
Post Time 4:43

RACE 11 #2-jockey TBA
Post Time 5:10

[tiggerv]

R8: A) 3,4,10 B) 2
R9: A) 5 B) 3,4
R10: A) 9,10
R11: A) 2,5,6,7,9 B) 1,10

4A-$2 & backups for $1 = $190

Good Luck

[Rudeboyelvis]

Race 8
10 Load a Chronic - Dropping out of ALW, 47.4 bullet Saturday; Catalano 35% off the l/o
3 Manchu Prince - Finally back to a capable level; gets the best turf jock in Tampa
2 Big Tex - Should handle the return to the weeds just fine - if dirt form translates should be in the mix 3rd
6 Nicky the Cat - Needed the last off the long layoff, Sacco 27% off the freshening

Race 9
5 Time Tells All - Freaked at 5F last out...how good is he?
3 Alex Ingram - Cut back to 6F puts him right there
11 Celtic Meal - sharp work last; should relish the distance; tough post but could factor at a nice price WON
4 Flatter Me Blue - Not a huge Amiss fan, and seeing winners for the first time off a huge move up is usually an auto toss for me, but this guy is capable and needs to be included 2nd

Race 10 - Have to get to a meeting - no comments
1 Secret Fever
4 Loushe
9 Lite Brigade 3rd
6 Big Brian T 2nd
10 Blind River Fox WON

Race 11
9 Commerical Free WON
2 Eventjolie

Big - 2/3/6/10//3,4,5,11//1,4,6,9,10//2,9 = 160.00
Small - 2,3,10//3,5//1,4,6,9,10//2,9 = 60.00

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

RACE 11 #2-jockey TBA
Post Time 5:10

Have they announced the rider yet?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Have they announced the rider yet?

The great Clifford Dooley.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

The great Clifford Dooley.

Oy vey....Somethings afoot here. None of the the top 5 jocks are sticking around for the nightcap and this is a logical contender to win. Or at least appears to be. It must be that scary Jockey/Trainer combo of R. Allen / R. Jeffries on the 9... they are a perfect 1 for 1 with 'ole Hit Another Gear getting it done on the 26th try yesterday...

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Oy vey....Somethings afoot here. None of the the top 5 jocks are sticking around for the nightcap and this is a logical contender to win. Or at least appears to be. It must be that scary Jockey/Trainer combo of R. Allen / R. Jeffries on the 9... they are a perfect 1 for 1 with 'ole Hit Another Gear getting it done on the 26th try yesterday...

The 9 is my very very reluctant top choice.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

The 9 is my very very reluctant top choice.

Mine too but there is a reason I went 7 deep

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

The 9 is my very very reluctant top choice.

He's an alright horse. Vic is a friend (was actually a partner in Wicked Sweet with me) and I've seen the horse on the backside - He's rather slight for a HH and is fairly crooked, but racing sound and has a lot of heart. I think he has very little trouble with this bunch stretching out. Especially since the best they could draw for the 2 was CD, tells me consensus among the colony is that it's a one horse race.
Of course with that said, Tiggerv's point of view is spot on

[tiggerv]

You are going to talk me into singling him RBE

He should stretch out with no problem and this group is pretty close to awful. My only problem is that he has run the same exact race 3 times in a row (which might be enough to beat this group) and I don't know anything about the new trainer. If he improves any then he should win easy.

[MISTERGEE]

any of you with tampa info have any stats on post position results in regard to two turn races on dirt? thanks

[tiggerv]

1 year profile

Dist - Cond - #Races - Inside 2 posts win % - Outside 2 posts win %
8.2 Dirt ft 61 11% 34%
8.2 Dirt wt 8 13% 63%
8.5 Dirt ft 83 13% 29%
8.5 Dirt wt 31 13% 39%

[tiggerv]

Dist - Cond - #Races - Impact Value - PP1 -PP2 -etc
8.2 Dirt ft 066 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.7
8.5 Dirt ft 083 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 0.6 1.3

[MISTERGEE]

thank you for this info, but just to make sure i am seeing straight. there is no disadvantage to the outside post even though it likes like a short run to the first turn? maybe even seems like advantage? sorry but just want to make sure i am reading right

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

thank you for this info, but just to make sure i am seeing straight. there is no disadvantage to the outside post even though it likes like a short run to the first turn? maybe even seems like advantage? sorry but just want to make sure i am reading right

Yes, if anything it is a little tougher from the inside but it's not enough for me to consider in my handicapping.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Castle Concert gets me again

I've bet this hanging rat everytime this meet, the day I leave him off, well you know....


Late P3

3,4,5,11//1,4,5,6,9,10//9 = 24.00 67.80

[tiggerv]

Yuck. I can't catch a break. Celtic Meal made sense cutting back.

[tiggerv]

Looks at those will pays RBE. I am going to be sick.

[Rudeboyelvis]

That's hard to believe...Was thinking (praying) the 6 was going to get up there in the 10th, that would have made the P3 monsterous