Stupid BSF question

[miraja2]

BSFs consist of two elements:
1) A speed rating, which translates the time of every race into a number.
2) A track variant, which measures the swiftness of the racing surface on a given day.

You combine the two to get the BSF. So if a horse runs a race with a speed rating of 90, on a track with a variant of -10, that horse would receive an 80.

The track variant often changes from one day to the next.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by miraja2

BSFs consist of two elements:
1) A speed rating, which translates the time of every race into a number.
2) A track variant, which measures the swiftness of the racing surface on a given day.

You combine the two to get the BSF. So if a horse runs a race with a speed rating of 90, on a track with a variant of -10, that horse would receive an 80.

The track variant often changes from one day to the next.

I understand what a track variant is, just not sure how it is figured on a day to day basis.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I understand what a track variant is, just not sure how it is figured on a day to day basis.

There is a par time set for races. The variant is figured each day by figuring how each race runs in relation to the par time for the class and distance of the races. I think.

Where I think that the system has a problem is that it can't account for the presence of a good horse to "mess up" the race. Say for instance, the track runs a 6f maiden race and the par time is 1:11 but you get some horse that's a future grade one sprinter in there and he wins in 1:09 2/5. Well wouldn't that mess up the variant for the day because it will make it seem like the track is playing fast when actually, it was just a fast horse? I'm thinking about a horse like Fabulous Strike. Obviously, he's a very good horse. Horses of his caliber don't come around Mountaineer on a regular basis so the par times for the races he was running there are going to be slower than what he's capable of running. So then when he comes out and fires one of his normal races and they are compared to what's normal at Mountaineer, is that how he ends up with the huge numbers?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

There is a par time set for races. The variant is figured each day by figuring how each race runs in relation to the par time for the class and distance of the races. I think.

Well, that is how you start out, but once you get going you have the history of all the horses in each race, so you don't use pars any more. Beyer is long past that stage. For races with little info, you just don't use it in variant calculation.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by miraja2

The track variant often changes from one day to the next.

And sometiimes within a single day.....