Oh my gosh

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

And I'm saying that all you possibly could have learned is that if War Pass gets slammed at the break in the Debry, he won't win. And I would have conceeded that point all along.

That's funny. You're totally missing the point. War Pass did not win today, if we agree on that, we're making progress. War Pass did not get ideal conditions today. Less than ideal conditions for any horse can spell loss, which happened today. To assume such situations occur only when a horse is bumped at the gate is handicapping suicide. Furthermore, even though he did not get away cleanly, he still found himself in a good spot tracking the speed. Yes, he was wide, but wide horses win all day long at Tampa. When it came time to run, he didn't fire.

I learned he's not a super horse. Still a good horse? You bet. But he's not in his own world, with everyone else living in it.

[Left Bank]

I personally believe he was,or is,injured.It looked to me like Cornelio was going to pull him up in the stretch at one point,and the horse did not look comfortable running at all.I'm betting he's hurt.

[justindew]

So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.

[The Bid]

Travis, the only way he doesnt get a free and clear trip is when the gate crew doesnt do their job. Hes broke like a rocketship in all other starts

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Travis, the only way he doesnt get a free and clear trip is when the gate crew doesnt do their job. Hes broke like a rocketship in all other starts

R, I think you're putting too much emphasis on the bad break. I think it's a combination of things... bad break, quirky surface that he didn't like, rank (which he has shown he can be in the past) and possibly sore. He didn't look comfortable to me at all (maybe the surface?)

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

R, I think you're putting too much emphasis on the bad break. I think it's a combination of things... bad break, quirky surface that he didn't like, rank (which he has shown he can be in the past) and possibly sore. He didn't look comfortable to me at all (maybe the surface?)

How can you tell on TV?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

How can you tell on TV?

I could tell in the Belmont a few years ago that War Emblem was having a panic attack on the backstretch because he was behind horses. For those of you who don't recall, WE was free-running sort who wanted to run on the front-end and went to his knees at the start. Rider chose not to gun him up to the lead (suicide in most races, and this was 12f), but the horse could not mentally handle not being on the lead.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I could tell in the Belmont a few years ago that War Emblem was having a panic attack on the backstretch because he was behind horses. For those of you who don't recall, WE was free-running sort who wanted to run on the front-end and went to his knees at the start. Rider chose not to gun him up to the lead (suicide in most races, and this was 12f), but the horse could not mentally handle not being on the lead.

I was kidding.

[The Bid]

The break is the only variable with him winning or losing today. To me it cannot be downplayed. If he opens up a clear advantage the race is over. Hes ran at Sar, Mth, Gsp, and Bel, hes ran on fast, hes ran on sloppy. Hes never shown any dislike for anything until today. He dislikes being behind, between, outside of others. Lucky for him he wont be if hes allowed a clean break

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.

I'm not here to argue the definition of ideal, that's not my point, which again, you're totally dancing around.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not here to argue the definition of ideal, that's not my point, which again, you're totally dancing around.

I guess your point is that the race should not be tossed because War Pass still had a chance to win in spite of his bad break. I'm saying that his bad break took him compltely out of his running style and forced him to do something he has no experience doing if he wanted to win. I am also saying there is no reason to predict that this exact same scenario will occur again in the Derby, therefore there is nothing meaningful to be learned by this race today in regard to War Pass. Unless of course you think Zito hoped War Pass would teach himself to stalk and pounce.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm saying that his bad break took him compltely out of his running style and forced him to do something he has no experience doing if he wanted to win.

So let's bring this full circle to my first point, that if you toss this race, you are ignoring what this race taught. But if what I read is correct, you did learn something, so this race did teach you something, and therefore, you're not tossing it. Forgiving his last place finish? That's fine, as I am too. But to just toss it, in my opinion, is ultra-risky.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

So let's bring this full circle to my first point, that if you toss this race, you are ignoring what this race taught. But if what I read is correct, you did learn something, so this race did teach you something, and therefore, you're not tossing it. Forgiving his last place finish? That's fine, as I am too. But to just toss it, in my opinion, is ultra-risky.

Let me rephrase: This race taught me nothing relevant. So I'm tossing it.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

They said on TVG that War Pass had not been injured. We will still need to wait a few days to know for sure.

If War Pass was sick or not feeling well like someone said and they knew about it, Zito should definitely not have ran him in this race. That can ruin horses for good. Happened to Belgravia.

I think he didn't like the surface of the track and needs everything to go his way to win. I also still think, as I have said before, that he moved way up in the BC Juvy on the slop.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

They said on TVG that War Pass had not been injured. We will still need to wait a few days to know for sure.

If War Pass was sick or not feeling well like someone said and they knew about it, Zito should definitely not have ran him in this race. That can ruin horses for good. Happened to Belgravia.

I think he didn't like the surface of the track and needs everything to go his way to win. I also still think, as I have said before, that he moved way up in the BC Juvy on the slop.

i seriously doubt that zito would run him had he had any doubts about him physically.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i seriously doubt that zito would run him had he had any doubts about him physically.

I doubt it too, but someone else on here said that reports were that War Pass wasn't feeling well. I don't know if it is true or not...

I don't know that much about Zito so...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by justindew

I guess your point is that the race should not be tossed because War Pass still had a chance to win in spite of his bad break. I'm saying that his bad break took him compltely out of his running style and forced him to do something he has no experience doing if he wanted to win. I am also saying there is no reason to predict that this exact same scenario will occur again in the Derby, therefore there is nothing meaningful to be learned by this race today in regard to War Pass. Unless of course you think Zito hoped War Pass would teach himself to stalk and pounce.

i would argue that it was a very meaningful race, that War Pass is not versatile, needs things to set-up his way in order to perform at his best and cannot pass a horse. If you want to totally discount why thats important information with regard to the derby then all I can say is Good Luck.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i would argue that it was a very meaningful race, that War Pass is not versatile, needs things to set-up his way in order to perform at his best and cannot pass a horse. If you want to totally discount why thats important information with regard to the derby then all I can say is Good Luck.

Rarely agree with you Jim, but I think you're spot-on here.

I have a feeling we won't be seeing War Pass again. Hope I'm wrong.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by justindew

So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.

Some horses need the lead to win, some don't. Many speed horses are perceived as "need to lead" types until proven otherwise. It may not be 100% accurate, but it may be the way to bet. Azeri proved that she didn't need the lead to win but day in and day out horses who don't get the lead sulk and run last or near last against horses they ought to beat.
Slew proved in the Derby that he could get hit, boxed and blocked and still get to the front. WP had that chance today against overmatched horses and didn't do ANYTHING. if he gets a rough trip and loses to Atoned or BT, I say "OK, he got a lesson." He was dreadful. Either he is a cold frontrunner with no heart for a fight, or something was very wrong with him.
This coming from someone who has him at the top of a published "Derby Dozen List" as of last Tuesday.