Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[Indian Charlie]

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

While I don't completely disagree with you guys' analysis regarding this colt, I don't think all the hype comes just from his performance in that race. Some of it is pedigree-hype too. If a horse with a different pedigree ran the exact same race that he did in the Hopeful, there would be far less Derby-hype. When a horse by AP Indy and out of a multiple-G1 winning daughter of Seeking the Gold runs that kind of race at 7f, people - perhaps understandably - start getting excited about the horse's potential when stretching out as a 3yo.
But of course, that still leaves the Champagne to explain away.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by miraja2

While I don't completely disagree with you guys' analysis regarding this colt, I don't think all the hype comes just from his performance in that race. Some of it is pedigree-hype too. If a horse with a different pedigree ran the exact same race that he did in the Hopeful, there would be far less Derby-hype. When a horse by AP Indy and out of a multiple-G1 winning daughter of Seeking the Gold runs that kind of race at 7f, people - perhaps understandably - start getting excited about the horse's potential when stretching out as a 3yo.

The pedigree stuff goes without saying.

Thank whatever deity you believe in that this horse is not named bob black jack!!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Thank whatever deity you believe in that this horse is not named bob black jack!!

Okay.















































Thank you PG1985.....wherever you are......

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

True, but his mother was a closing sprinter. A very good closing sprinter and deadly at Saratoga, but she was best around one turn.

Yeah, and based on what we've seen from him thus far, (which isn't very much) it looks like there is a good chance he will take after her rather than his sire or dam-sire. I was just pointing out that I think seeing those two in his pedigree is a HUGE part of whatever hype there might be surrounding this horse.
If Mott really thinks he is a great Derby prospect, does he have some sort of explanation for the Champagne? Did he offer one after the race? I honestly can't remember.

[lemoncrush]

Being that there isn't really a standout derby favorite as of yet, it would seem that the "Field" wager could easily be the best money wager in the pool this weekend.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Being that there isn't really a standout derby favorite as of yet, it would seem that the "Field" wager could easily be the best money wager in the pool this weekend.

Visionaire runs this weekend as well. Depending on how he looksm "Field" could be really good. If he runs a huge race or something, that is like getting one of the favorites and all others...

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Visionaire runs this weekend as well. Depending on how he looks the "Field" could be really good. If he runs a huge race or something, that is like getting one of the favorites and all others...

Yeah. Visionaire surprised me a little too, but since he's got no stakes experience, I probably shouldn't be surprised.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Visionaire runs this weekend as well. Depending on how he looksm "Field" could be really good. If he runs a huge race or something, that is like getting one of the favorites and all others...

Visionaire is available on Bodog at 70-1..... Just put down 25 on him

[Scav]

Churchill Downs has given me a free $25 future wager so I'll probably play Anak Nakal, he should at least get there, and has the talent so what the hell, probably be decent odds since he isn't racing this weekend and people will forget about him after they unload on the winners of this weekend

[justindew]

No Barrier Reef (not nominated, but I am alomst positive CD has included non-nominees before).

No Check It Twice (Stakes winner at 2, under Pletcher's care, gets JV this weekend at FG).

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

No Barrier Reef (not nominated, but I am alomst positive CD has included non-nominees before).

No Check It Twice (Stakes winner at 2, under Pletcher's care, gets JV this weekend at FG).

Yes but you forgot to mention the REAL oversight....the 10f monster herself.....Indian Blessing! I guess they just assume that Baffert might skip the Derby afterall, so he can have a fresh horse for the Belmont.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by justindew

No Barrier Reef (not nominated, but I am alomst positive CD has included non-nominees before).

No Check It Twice (Stakes winner at 2, under Pletcher's care, gets JV this weekend at FG).

They have included non nominees, and got their heads handed to them for doing so.

Check it Twice should be on the list.

Todd sounded more likely to go to dirt with Cowboy Cal a month or so ago when his only major dirt colt was Monba. Now that he has a couple moe to deal with he is less likely to use CC on dirt. Thus CC doesn't look like a great choice either. As for Georgie Boy, do the selectors not follow the maiden and allowance programs at GP/FG/SA at all? That's the best they could come up with?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Check it Twice is nominated.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Linny

They have included non nominees, and got their heads handed to them for doing so.

Why?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last.the cali horses need to get a run on a dirt surface..Its feb..and of those mentioned crown of thorns is the best of all .giant moon gets a ding fom this guy..and no mention of zitos other horses....at this point its pretty foggy......

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last..

Denis of Cork hated the off going in that ALW race according to everyone involved with him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Denis of Cork hated the off going in that ALW race according to everyone involved with him.

Did they ask him?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last.the cali horses need to get a run on a dirt surface..Its feb..and of those mentioned crown of thorns is the best of all .giant moon gets a ding fom this guy..and no mention of zitos other horses....at this point its pretty foggy......

I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

To answer the last part, I think Leparoux is a Derby jockey and last I heard he will be on Court Vision when he returns and that is his mount indefinitely.

NT