hypothetical derby

[miraja2]

I love stuff like this, so here is my trifecta, 9-10-18.
Is Perfect Drift one of the top 3 horses in the race? - no.
Am I crazy enough to leave him out of a trifecta bet - no.

[JJP]

Here's my line

1. Giacomo 75-1
2. Rock Hard Ten 30-1
3. Congaree 25-1
4. Aptitude 20-1
5. Peace Rules 50-1
6. Birdstone 25-1
7. Point Given 6-1
8. Barbaro 7-1
9. Afleet Alex 9-1
10. Smarty Jones 10-1
11. Fusaichi Pegasus 15-1
12. Empire Maker 12-1
13. War Emblem 15-1
14. Funny Cide 20-1
15. Bernardini 10-1
16. Red Bullet 30-1
17. Monarchos 12-1
18. Perfect Drift 30-1
19. Ten Most Wanted 20-1
20. Proud Citizen 75-1

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's my line

1. Giacomo 75-1
2. Rock Hard Ten 30-1
3. Congaree 25-1
4. Aptitude 20-1
5. Peace Rules 50-1
6. Birdstone 25-1
7. Point Given 6-1
8. Barbaro 7-1
9. Afleet Alex 9-1
10. Smarty Jones 10-1
11. Fusaichi Pegasus 15-1
12. Empire Maker 12-1
13. War Emblem 15-1
14. Funny Cide 20-1
15. Bernardini 10-1
16. Red Bullet 30-1
17. Monarchos 12-1
18. Perfect Drift 30-1
19. Ten Most Wanted 20-1
20. Proud Citizen 75-1

First of all let me congratulate the original poster on a pretty good list. I kept thinking that there had to be somebody better than Proud Citizen to include on the list....but I actually can't think of anyone.
Secondly, JJP's line seems fairly reasonable and if those were the odds I would be putting my money on what I see as the value horses. They are:

#6 Birdstone - 25/1 - almost always tough on a dry track
#11 FuPeg - 15/1 - looked very good in his derby to be at this price
#16 Red Bullet - 30/1 - definitely capable of hitting the board

[Pointg5]

Does anyone remember when that guy on the ESPN Board signed up and claimed that he had this great handicapping software? He claimed that he made all of this money using it... He told us that Congaree was going to win the Derby, which was fine, not a terrible choice, except it was 2003, he was 100% serious as well...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Does anyone remember when that guy on the ESPN Board signed up and claimed that he had this great handicapping software? He claimed that he made all of this money using it... He told us that Congaree was going to win the Derby, which was fine, not a terrible choice, except it was 2003, he was 100% serious as well...

PG, that was one of the funniest things ever
umm...hey give Bellamy Road a mulligan
and he whips this field into submission
but, I'd take Empire Maker (1)
Point Given (not today, revisited)
Barbaro (2)
Monarchos (3)
Bernadini at 10/1 (wow) & Smarty Jones at 10/1 (wow)
can I get that 1 on 1 wager at even money?

Barbaro
Smarty
Afleet Alex
Monarchos
Bernardini

One of these five with the edge to Barbaro who seemed to be able to win on dirt, turf, offtracks, anything.

[Kasept]

It's a great hypo, and the thing you have to qualify is whether all are 100% at their finest the day of the running...

If they are, you also have to acknowledge the pace scenario would be red hot and your most likely winner would be coming from off the pace.

Do you also get to assume that the 20 post doesn't destroy your chances? Or are the posts listed is if they are running at Churchill from those slots? Are we assuming there's no extreme trouble for anyone too?

All those conditions would point to Monarchos since he ran down as good a group as we've had in the Derby during that period chasing hot fractions.. And he did it earning huge figures... And from an extreme post.

1. Monarchos
2. Point Given
3. Smarty Jones
4. Perfect Drift
5. Empire Maker
6. Barbaro
7. Afleet Alex
8. Ten Most Wanted

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's my line

1. Giacomo 75-1
2. Rock Hard Ten 30-1
3. Congaree 25-1
4. Aptitude 20-1
5. Peace Rules 50-1
6. Birdstone 25-1
7. Point Given 6-1
8. Barbaro 7-1
9. Afleet Alex 9-1
10. Smarty Jones 10-1
11. Fusaichi Pegasus 15-1
12. Empire Maker 12-1
13. War Emblem 15-1
14. Funny Cide 20-1
15. Bernardini 10-1
16. Red Bullet 30-1
17. Monarchos 12-1
18. Perfect Drift 30-1
19. Ten Most Wanted 20-1
20. Proud Citizen 75-1

From a technical standpoint ... this is a very good line ... it has just the right amount of "vig" built into it.

Nice work, JJP.

Here's the bottom line, folks ...

Run this race ten times ... and you'll get ten different winners.

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Here's the bottom line, folks ...

Run this race ten times ... and you'll get ten different winners.

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.

I agree with this. But if Empire Maker and Point Given are healthy, I give them a slight edge with Smarty around as well.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree with this. But if Empire Maker and Point Given are healthy, I give them a slight edge with Smarty around as well.

But ...

... but both of those guys were healthy when they ran in the actual race ... and neither won.

Anyhow ... this is a fun thread. I make 6 the under/over on the number of pages it will run.

[randallscott35]

BB,

You should know that Empire Maker was far from healthy when he ran in that race. He was damn near running with a bar shoe.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

But ... both of those guys were healthy when they ran in the actual race ... and neither won. Anyhow ... this is a fun thread. I make 6 the under/over on the number of pages it will run.

BB,

I absolutely hated EM at the time and savaged Frankel in writing for the way he acted towards Tagg pre-Belmont, but the horse wasn't 100% Derby Day.. As for PG, he may have been "healthy", but he WAS short, and that hoof was almost NEVER "perfect" his whole soph season. I've maintained 2 things about Point Given:

1.) I've suggested that he instinctively "chose" to not run all out on that rock hard Downs surface that day.. That track ruined Monarchos, Invisible Ink, Thunder Blitz and others, and it took a long time for Congaree to get right afterwards as well.

2.) His win in the Haskell was testimony to how great he was. He was totally off in the problem hoof that day and still got up on a speed favoring surface running against a negative pace scenario for him.

[31lengths]

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.[/quote]

That could be said for EVERY Derby winner who didn't lose a race before the Derby.

[slotdirt]

OT, but I got upgraded from a non-existent track to a training track? That's a promotion in posting status?

[Unbridled]

Im with Scavs here.........Empire Maker in a walkover. Go to the windows with both fists full.

[slotdirt]

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

He would be in my tri box in this race. He is the only horse I have ever seen race live that I was in awe of after his race. I seriously said "WOW! There is my derby horse" after his Fla Derby win.

His mama can pop out some awesome babies.

[miraja2]

The other question is about the jocks.
Are we to assume that Prado is aboard Barbaro AND Birdstone, Bailey is on Empire Maker AND Red Bullet, etc? This definitely looks like a jocks' race to me.

[Unbridled]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

He won the G2 Remsen as a 2yo, 3 top level 3you races: G1 Florida Derby (a field that he whipped), G1 Wood, and the G1 Belmont..........2nd in the Derby w/ a bad foot, kinda difficult to run on a lame wheel and 2nd in the Jim Dandy on concrete-esque, speed favoring track at the Spa. Overhyped? I guess so since he didnt win the Belmont by 31 lengths.