Arlington's Saturday Card - DRF Contest

[miraja2]

What do you guys think of the other "Dreaming of" horse, Dreaming of Liz, in the tenth? I can't make up my mind. Her last race was certainly impressive, she has been training like a monster, and her pedigree (particularly the dam-side) seems to indicate that stretching out a bit won't be a huge problem.
On the other hand, she is making a big jump in class while stretching out against stakes-tested fillies like Wonderful Luck. The fact that she is coming from way out there in post 11 seems problematic too.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

What do you guys think of the other "Dreaming of" horse, Dreaming of Liz, in the tenth? I can't make up my mind. Her last race was certainly impressive, she has been training like a monster, and her pedigree (particularly the dam-side) seems to indicate that stretching out a bit won't be a huge problem.
On the other hand, she is making a big jump in class while stretching out against stakes-tested fillies like Wonderful Luck. The fact that she is coming from way out there in post 11 seems problematic too.

I would totally throw out the post issue -- on the long stretch in those one turn mile races at Arlington, being outside can be a huge advantage with over a half mile to get position. I'd rather have her out in the clear than boxed in down near the rail with her position chosen for her by the other riders instead of her own.

I think she's got a HUGE shot, her first race was pretty decent when you look at where the winner went next, and her pedigree sure makes it seem like this mile will be even better for her than her previous starts.

I'd also be surprised if she doesn't go favored.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I would totally throw out the post issue -- on the long stretch in those one turn mile races at Arlington, being outside can be a huge advantage with over a half mile to get position. I'd rather have her out in the clear than boxed in down near the rail with her position chosen for her by the other riders instead of her own.

I think she's got a HUGE shot, her first race was pretty decent when you look at where the winner went next, and her pedigree sure makes it seem like this mile will be even better for her than her previous starts.

I'd also be surprised if she doesn't go favored.

No way she is favored in that race, not a chance. If she is, i might play the race for real and not just the contest

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Scav

No way she is favored in that race, not a chance. If she is, i might play the race for real and not just the contest

She's 4-1 on the morning line from the best connections on the ground. She's Marcus Hersh's Best Bet of the Day, there's an article about her in the DRF and her stablemate's going in the race prior.

I think she's going to be the favorite.

NT

[ArlJim78]

i'll be playing against DOL in the 10th. first of all she'll be an underlay given all the hype, second i don't like her late pace numbers for the stretchout to a mile. i don't think with her light foundation she'll be staying the full mile on the lead against horses with more racing in them.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i'll be playing against DOL in the 10th. first of all she'll be an underlay given all the hype, second i don't like her late pace numbers for the stretchout to a mile. i don't think with her light foundation she'll be staying the full mile on the lead against horses with more racing in them.

I completely agree and in fact I think this race could be ripe for a bomb coming through. Honest to Betsy is going to get money because of the fourth place finish last time, but that race was a total mirage given that More Happy was totally spent in the last furlong. Honest to Betsy is 7/2 on the morning line and those odds are intolerable.

Wonderful Luck looks kind of "one-paced" and perhaps the only thing going for her is that she's returning to the synthetic surface. Those two on top of Dreaming of Liz at a short price make shopping for longshots seem to be a good idea.

NT

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

She's 4-1 on the morning line from the best connections on the ground. She's Marcus Hersh's Best Bet of the Day, there's an article about her in the DRF and her stablemate's going in the race prior.

I think she's going to be the favorite.

NT

3rd choice, maybe she ties for 2nd choice, but i doubt she is favored, if so, she is one of the falsiest favorites of the year.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

3rd choice, maybe she ties for 2nd choice, but i doubt she is favored, if so, she is one of the falsiest favorites of the year.

I agree. I would be really shocked if she goes off as the favorite given Wonderful Luck's record on synthetic.

[Mike]

I'm going to focus on The Pucker Up:

http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20070...px0899r_07.pdf
(you may have to be logged into thorograph.com and be registered)