Final Verdict ... Fog Is A Fraud

[Rupert Pupkin]

It doesn't do much good to judge a horse on a day that he doesn't fire. LITF obviously did not run anything close to his best today. I'm not surprised. I thought he trained sore before his last race. I thought he would lose that day. I was totally surprised that he won that day.
In addition, Gilchrist has admitted that the horse has some physical problems this year that he didn't have last year. They were considering retiring him last month. His race today doesn't prove anything. He was obviously hurting today. I think there is a good chance this will be his last race.
I'm not saying that LITF is that great of a horse. I'm just saying that I wouldn't judge him based on today's performance, a day that he obviously did not fire. I think he's a very good horse but not incredible. If he ran his best and faced a healthy Ghostzapper at 7 furlongs, GZ would kill him.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It doesn't do much good to judge a horse on a day that he doesn't fire. LITF obviously did not run anything close to his best today. I'm not surprised. I thought he trained sore before his last race. I thought he would lose that day. I was totally surprised that he won that day.
In addition, Gilchrist has admitted that the horse has some physical problems this year that he didn't have last year. They were considering retiring him last month. His race today doesn't prove anything. He was obviously hurting today. I think there is a good chance this will be his last race.

He runs his best against weaker fields when he can comfortably assume the lead on the turn. Whenever he has real quality sprinters on his inside that make him fight for the lead he folds up or as you say, he doesn't fire. I've not heard about these supposed physical problems and I don't buy it. If he is obviously hurting and has physical problems why are they racing him against hard knockers like the field today? In todays DRF the quote from Gilchrist is "But the way he won the Aristides I'd say he's just as good now as he was when he came here last year". Sounds confident to me.

[DerbyCat]

I don't want to simplify this too much but... this is a horse that likes the lead, if he doesn't have it and gets dirt kicked in his face, he slows down to get away from it - end of story. He will only win small field races like he'll find in California. He may run another race or two here in CA but I would guess he'll go to stud before the end of the year... anyone disagree?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Just think he didn't care for the track(like a lot of them today.)

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Just think he didn't care for the track(like a lot of them today.)

He cared for it a year ago...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

He cared for it a year ago...

No,this was not the surface he won on a year ago.Lets be real here.Three nice horses who like this track(E Breeze,L M Alone,and LITF)DIDN'T FIRE.I don't have any doubt it was a little too heavy a track today for some of these speed types.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

No,this was not the surface he won on a year ago.Lets be real here.Three nice horses who like this track(E Breeze,L M Alone,and LITF)DIDN'T FIRE.I don't have any doubt it was a little too heavy a track today for some of these speed types.

Wait up. You get on me for liking the horse, and now you're making excuses for him losing today? LOL.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

He runs his best against weaker fields when he can comfortably assume the lead on the turn. Whenever he has real quality sprinters on his inside that make him fight for the lead he folds up or as you say, he doesn't fire. I've not heard about these supposed physical problems and I don't buy it. If he is obviously hurting and has physical problems why are they racing him against hard knockers like the field today? In todays DRF the quote from Gilchrist is "But the way he won the Aristides I'd say he's just as good now as he was when he came here last year". Sounds confident to me.

Trainers don't make up stories about their horses having problems. It's just the opposite. They will usually claim that their horse is sound even if the horse is very unsound. In this case, Gilchrist admitted flat out that the horse has got alot of physical problems this year. You obviously have not read the interviews with Gilchrist. I'm sure you didn't know that they were thinking about retiring him if he didn't win the race in Kentucky. The quote that you read was positive, but you need to listen to everything they say. I would expect him to say positive things about his horse. These trainers will very rarely say anything negative about their horses. You have to listen carefully for any clue they may give you. In this case, it wasn't so subtle. Gilchrist flat out said that the horse a lot of problmes this year and that they were thinking about retiring him.
Even before I read the interview, I knew the horse was not right this year because I saw him galloping sore in the morning. I couldn't believe that he ran so well in Kentucky. I guess Gilchrist managed to get one last good race out of him.
You asked why they would run the horse in a tough race if he has problems. Trainers do it all the time. You never know for sure how a hurt horse will run, until you try it. You should have seen the ankle on Bandidni before the Ky Derby. He had a huge ankle on him, but Plethcer took a shot and ran him any way. In that case, it didn't work. Baffert ran Forrest Camp with a huge ankle in the Del Mar Furturity. One of my trainers could not believe that the horse was running on that ankle. He ended up winning the race easily but that was the last race of his career.
Anyway, LITF had nothing today. He didn't even show any speed. You know there's something wrong when he doesn't even show any speed. He even showed speed in the BC Sprint.