Any Given Saturday

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Just about anything is economically feasible for them

Although I don't play anywhere near that level, what I find very disturbing (as many others do as well), is the cause/effect of how the marketplace has been completely distorted -- at various points on the spectrum. We have seen it in buying promising racehorses (Discreet Cat), and in the broodmare marketplace (Ashado), and the stallion marketplace (how many do we have to name here, LOL).

Unlike others, I admit that if I ended up with a promising superstar, although I have done very well for myself, my family, business, horses, personal investments, real estate, etc. -- not selling for some scary number would be a poor decision. Being a "sportsmen" becomes unfeasible. It's similar to the people who say if they ever won the lottery, they wouldn't quit their job. Easy to say, but being in the financial/estate/tax/etc. field, I can tell you it's different when you are actually wearing the shoes as opposed to dreaming or projecting about wearing the shoes.

The same with a top 3yo. Although I would enjoy the incredible ride and would love to race him as a 4yo -- it just becomes extremely difficult, if not impossible.

It's not just the marketplace, but the entire industry and sport that needs a "correction" so to speak.

Eric

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I need about 8 more but I'm pretty poor

well, if you are poor I hate to ask what that makes the rest of us.(me)
I was just curious what the ratio of mares to stallions were.

I think they retire horses to stud at 3 (sometimes 2) because if they go on to race at 4 they don't make the money they can as a stallion. He may prove less valuable every time he runs, risks getting beat or injured in the worse way.

a bird in the hand

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Although I don't play anywhere near that level, what I find very disturbing (as many others do as well), is the cause/effect of how the marketplace has been completely distorted -- at various points on the spectrum. We have seen it in buying promising racehorses (Discreet Cat), and in the broodmare marketplace (Ashado), and the stallion marketplace (how many do we have to name here, LOL).

Unlike others, I admit that if I ended up with a promising superstar, although I have done very well for myself, my family, business, horses, personal investments, real estate, etc. -- not selling for some scary number would be a poor decision. Being a "sportsmen" becomes unfeasible. It's similar to the people who say if they ever won the lottery, they wouldn't quite their job. Easy to say, but being in the financial/estate/tax/etc. field, I can tell you it's different when you are actually wearing the shoes as opposed to dreaming or projecting about wearing the shoes.

The same with a top 3yo. Although I would enjoy the incredible ride and would love to race him as a 4yo -- it just becomes extremely difficult, if not impossible.

It's not just the marketplace, but the entire industry and sport that needs a "correction" so to speak.

Eric

Very well put.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

well, if you are poor I hate to ask what that makes the rest of us.(me)
I was just curious what the ratio of mares to stallions were.

I think they retire horses to stud at 3 (sometimes 2) because if they go on to race at 4 they don't make the money they can as a stallion. He may prove less valuable every time he runs, risks getting beat or injured in the worse way.

a bird in the hand

I understand what you are saying but overpaying for a horse then using the fact that you may have overpaid and dont want to lose value as a basis for early retirement is questionable.

As Eric says in his previous post, the majority of owners cannot turn down huge sums of money but the billionaires that talk about value and such are simply bad for the game in the long run.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I need about 8 more but I'm pretty poor

Your cousin is not poor.
Call a timeout and get him in the game.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I understand what you are saying but overpaying for a horse then using the fact that you may have overpaid and dont want to lose value as a basis for early retirement is questionable.

As Eric says in his previous post, the majority of owners cannot turn down huge sums of money but the billionaires that talk about value and such are simply bad for the game in the long run.

Thanks for understanding wha I am saying. It is a challenge.

just to be clear. I was not being complmentary. I think it is a sham and agree that it is bad for racing.

Also, this is why I wonder why anyone would take a horse to a freshman sire that hasn't proven anything in the shed. How many drop from their initial offering and how many jump up like Storm Cat. Why take your horse to AGS when Distorted Humor (I think) is the one that produced AGS. Now that I have said this I am sure AGS will go on to be the leading sire of 2010.

[NoChanceToDance]

Is anyone else completely shocked that WinStar sold a decent stallion prospect? They are know for keeping their horses and standing them as stallions after they are retired.

I'm guessing the Darley offer would have to have been around $35-40million for WinStar to accept the offer, i might be wrong but it must have been HUGE for them to say yes.

He would have retired at the end of this year if either operation had ownership of him.

I'm convinced they will get Curlin asap, too. They are desperate to get the leading first season sire in America and with Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and maybe Curlin that objective looks reachable and i hope for American breeding they do it, because if they don't they will begin try to purchase every single high class 3yo until they do get a top freshman.

Their domination of the sport (as far as money is concerned) in Britain is well documented. I'm pretty sure the same tactics will soon be evident in the US, too.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Thanks for understanding wha I am saying. It is a challenge.

just to be clear. I was not being complmentary. I think it is a sham and agree that it is bad for racing.

Also, this is why I wonder why anyone would take a horse to a freshman sire that hasn't proven anything in the shed. How many drop from their initial offering and how many jump up like Storm Cat. Why take your horse to AGS when Distorted Humor (I think) is the one that produced AGS. Now that I have said this I am sure AGS will go on to be the leading sire of 2010.

It's a risk, but it could turn out to be very profitable. If you plan to sell the resulting colt/filly as a foal or yearling it's almost certain that you will get more if it is by a freshman. In this game it's all about taking risks with stallions, freshman sires will always be in demand.

Over in Europe, everyone is banking on Hurricane Run to prove himself. I think his yearlings will sell very very well. It seems like every mare owner wants to go to him.

[NoChanceToDance]

Has anyone heard the actual price paid for AGS?

Rumour is $50million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that is true, it is becoming a joke.

He was worth a lot of money and you can be sure that winstar wouldn't have let him go for any less than his value and much more on top, so $50milllion might not be too far off.

You guys better hope that he or one of the others sires the Derby winner in 2011 or there will be trouble!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Has anyone heard the actual price paid for AGS?

Rumour is $50million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that is true, it is becoming a joke.

He was worth a lot of money and you can be sure that winstar wouldn't have let him go for any less than his value and much more on top, so $50milllion might not be too far off.

You guys better hope that he or one of the others sires the Derby winner in 2011 or there will be trouble!!

no way it's that high. smarty jones didn't even go for that much. then look at hard spun--word was about 18 million, and about twice that for street sense.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Is anyone else completely shocked that WinStar sold a decent stallion prospect? They are know for keeping their horses and standing them as stallions after they are retired.

I'm guessing the Darley offer would have to have been around $35-40million for WinStar to accept the offer, i might be wrong but it must have been HUGE for them to say yes.

He would have retired at the end of this year if either operation had ownership of him.

I'm convinced they will get Curlin asap, too. They are desperate to get the leading first season sire in America and with Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and maybe Curlin that objective looks reachable and i hope for American breeding they do it, because if they don't they will begin try to purchase every single high class 3yo until they do get a top freshman.

Their domination of the sport (as far as money is concerned) in Britain is well documented. I'm pretty sure the same tactics will soon be evident in the US, too.

i'm thinking lane's end for curlin, as padua is part owner, and likes to deal with that farm--that's where paduas exchange rate went. but then again, vindication went to hill n dale, so who knows?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm thinking lane's end for curlin, as padua is part owner, and likes to deal with that farm--that's where paduas exchange rate went. but then again, vindication went to hill n dale, so who knows?

Didn't they just move their entire operation to KY?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Didn't they just move their entire operation to KY?

yep

wonder if a potential deal for curlin will be held up while the two lawyers deal with their 'issues'? after all, there could really be an impact on curlin because of their legal problems.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no way it's that high. smarty jones didn't even go for that much. then look at hard spun--word was about 18 million, and about twice that for street sense.

I wouldn't be so sure. Win Star were so excited to be standing him as a sire next year, they would not have accepted a bid unless it was sky high. I'd go as far as saying they wouldn't have accepted anything lower than twice his true value.

Don't forget, if Hard Spun wins a Gr1 before he retires, the price goes up another $15million, doesn't it?

I really wouldn't be surprised if it were close to $50million.

Win Star wouldn't get rid of a really good stallion prospect unless the offer couldn't be turned down

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I wouldn't be so sure. Win Star were so excited to be standing him as a sire next year, they would not have accepted a bid unless it was sky high. I'd go as far as saying they wouldn't have accepted anything lower than twice his true value.

Don't forget, if Hard Spun wins a Gr1 before he retires, the price goes up another $15million, doesn't it?

I really wouldn't be surprised if it were close to $50million.

Win Star wouldn't get rid of a really good stallion prospect unless the offer couldn't be turned down

rumor was that street sense was in the mid-30's. based on that, i just don't think AGS would go for that much--no way to justify him being 14 or so mill higher than the derby/bcj winner.
winstar may have been excited--but my gosh, 50 million?! no way. the stud fee that would require in order to even break even would be amazing--even with shuttling to australia where they can't command the same stud fee as here. most farms want to break even on purchase price within 3/4 years. think about the stud fee, mares to cover, need to shuttle to make that 50 mill.
any given saturday is no fupeg.

and win star would take the money, rather than work at making a stallion--which is risky-- if it's all right there in one lump sum.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Has anyone heard the actual price paid for AGS?

Rumour is $50million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that is true, it is becoming a joke.

He was worth a lot of money and you can be sure that winstar wouldn't have let him go for any less than his value and much more on top, so $50milllion might not be too far off.

You guys better hope that he or one of the others sires the Derby winner in 2011 or there will be trouble!!

if one of those sires sires a derby winner in 2011, their stud fee would skyrocket to about 50 million.

then again, their first 3yos wont be running in the derby until 2012, the year the world is supposed to end.

there will be a triple crown winner in 2011 at least, just not by one of those 2yos from those sires you mentioned.

[Danzig]

all i know is, if darley is indeed shelling out this kind of money to buy up all the breeding stock in order to 'knock off' coolmore they are

a-idiots
b-letting emotion get the best of them
and
c-too rich for their own good.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

It's a risk, but it could turn out to be very profitable. If you plan to sell the resulting colt/filly as a foal or yearling it's almost certain that you will get more if it is by a freshman. In this game it's all about taking risks with stallions, freshman sires will always be in demand.

Over in Europe, everyone is banking on Hurricane Run to prove himself. I think his yearlings will sell very very well. It seems like every mare owner wants to go to him.

very true. So we get expensive freshamn sires and expensive yearlings and when they finally get to the track they are Green Monkeying all over the place

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

all i know is, if darley is indeed shelling out this kind of money to buy up all the breeding stock in order to 'knock off' coolmore they are

a-idiots
b-letting emotion get the best of them
and
c-too rich for their own good.

Nope, actually they are only c. Them buying these stallions is the equivalent of us buying a DVD on sale at Target for $9.99. I sh!t you not. Do the math, it is scary how insignificant $50 million is to them.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Danzig

all i know is, if darley is indeed shelling out this kind of money to buy up all the breeding stock in order to 'knock off' coolmore they are

a-idiots
b-letting emotion get the best of them
and
c-too rich for their own good.

I wouldn't go as far as saying they are idiots, but B and C definitley come into it. They have become so hell bent on beating Coolmore they have let the business slip and forgot about their own breeding operation.

I'm not sure if this is to do with the feud with Coolmore, i simply think that they are desperate to get the leading freshman in 2010 and have the sire of the Derby winner in 2011 (it will be a bonus if they own the winner, also). When they bought Street Sense and Hard Spun (a deal which i think was done almost as soon as they crossed the line), they thought that would be all they needed. Then Curlin came and beat Street Sense and i bet they were thinking "sh!t", my guess is that they tried to get him, too......... then to dent them even further, AGS comes along and destroys Curlin, now their thoughts are "double sh!t".......... the only thing they can do (in their eyes) is buy AGS because he is competition to HS ans SS in the breeding shed.

The worrying thing is that these people don't care about making up the cost in stallion fees and if they wanted to they could just go on a mare spending spree and only breed their own mares by these stallions for the first couple of years. If that was to happen, it could be a major crisis.

I maitain the fact that buying the competition both in racing and breeding is slowly killing the sport, and almost 100% of that is being carried out by this organisation.