Circular Quay

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Wonderful.

Answer me this.

If you owned a horse today -- right now -- ranked a bit higher in Todd's barn than CQ... say the #4 2 yo colt and let's say CQ is, oh, 6th --- would you truly rather own that colt as opposed to the Graded winner CQ? Right now, today? Just curious.

It depends on what you want to win. Most of his big owners like a Tabor are playing to win the derby. I would take Cot's two year old over CQ in a second. He will win the Hopeful unless Scat Daddy is as good as they say. CQ will not win the Hopeful, might not even be in it.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

It depends on what you want to win. Most of his big owners like a Tabor are playing to win the derby. I would take Cot's two year old over CQ in a second. He will win the Hopeful unless Scat Daddy is as good as they say. CQ will not win the Hopeful, might not even be in it.

A bird in hand is worth.....

I'd go the other way, but, good luck! That's why they let us wager on these things.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

A bird in hand is worth.....

I'd go the other way, but, good luck! That's why they let us wager on these things.

The bird in the hand is the horse with a 99 beyer with little effort in his only race, not the one that won a 2yr old stakes race and is playing around in the low 80's with his beyers. The Dogwood horse is significantly more talented at this point than CQ. The fact that people are calling CQ great is comical.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

The bird in the hand is the horse with a 99 beyer with little effort in his only race, not the one that won a 2yr old stakes race and is playing around in the low 80's with his beyers. The Dogwood horse is significantly more talented at this point than CQ. The fact that people are calling CQ great is comical.

We'll see what happens. I'm never overimpressed by big maiden wins where talent just overwhelms in runaway style. Never. I am also as likely to bet against a 99 debut-beyer second out horse as I am to pass the race. It's interesting, but horses that debut so high beyer-wise in free-running fashion often have a hard time running back to their number. So, beware. On the other hand, CQ did do some running yesterday where he had to make something happen and he showed some athleticism doing it. Great colt? Who knows? Very nice performance though.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

We'll see what happens. I'm never overimpressed by big maiden wins where talent just overwhelms in runaway style. Never. I am also as likely to bet against a 99 debut-beyer second out horse as I am to pass the race. It's interesting, but horses that debut so high beyer-wise in free-running fashion often have a hard time running back to their number. So, beware.

For what it's worth, I don't particularly disagree with this in general, but the horse being discussed with the 99 Beyer, Soaring By, did not earn his figure in " free-running fashion ". He broke a tad slow, was not rushed, and made a nice closing move to win off fairly easily. I have no real opinion of his future one way or another, and as always we need to see more races, but it wasn't one of those fast front running victories that often prove unreliable.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For what it's worth, I don't particularly disagree with this in general, but the horse being discussed with the 99 Beyer, Soaring By, did not earn his figure in " free-running fashion ". He broke a tad slow, was not rushed, and made a nice closing move to win off fairly easily. I have no real opinion of his future one way or another, and as always we need to see more races, but it wasn't one of those fast front running victories that often prove unreliable.

No, it actually was the most impressive 2yr old race this spring, which is why it makes me laugh when Oracle says CQ is the greatest 2yr old he has seen in 10yrs and that no 2yr old will beat him this year. Soaring By is a better horse right now, but anything can happen with 2yr olds.

[ateamstupid]

Hoisttheflag, we get it. You don't like the "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. How many times are you gonna say it?

The only reason I think most people are down on CQ is because they heard Scat Daddy or whoever else was the top 2-year-old in Pletcher's barn. That may be true, but as I remember it, Nick Zito said SUN KING was his best 3-year-old last year. Better than Bellamy Road. So even the trainers don't know for sure what they have until the horses all prove what they can and cannot do on a track.

How ****ing hard is it for you people to comprehend that someone's opinion is just that? No one is right or wrong here. Oracle, others and I see something special in CQ. A few of you don't. That's totally cool with me, but people like Hoisttheflag won't be able to die in peace until Oracle rescinds his "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. Give it a rest..

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Hoisttheflag, we get it. You don't like the "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. How many times are you gonna say it?

The only reason I think most people are down on CQ is because they heard Scat Daddy or whoever else was the top 2-year-old in Pletcher's barn. That may be true, but as I remember it, Nick Zito said SUN KING was his best 3-year-old last year. Better than Bellamy Road. So even the trainers don't know for sure what they have until the horses all prove what they can and cannot do on a track.

How ****ing hard is it for you people to comprehend that someone's opinion is just that? No one is right or wrong here. Oracle, others and I see something special in CQ. A few of you don't. That's totally cool with me, but people like Hoisttheflag won't be able to die in peace until Oracle rescinds his "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. Give it a rest..

I read Oracle bashing the Cunningham guy and going off on his little "accountablity" for what you write diatribe. You want to bash people you better be able to take it.

[blackthroatedwind]

To be fair to Nick, I'm not certain Bellamy Road was in his barn yet when he said that. However, it is more than a valid point in general.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For what it's worth, I don't particularly disagree with this in general, but the horse being discussed with the 99 Beyer, Soaring By, did not earn his figure in " free-running fashion ". He broke a tad slow, was not rushed, and made a nice closing move to win off fairly easily. I have no real opinion of his future one way or another, and as always we need to see more races, but it wasn't one of those fast front running victories that often prove unreliable.

I saw his race differently. A half-step slow, ok. But he had open racetrack in front of him the entire race. Outside post and superior ability combined with no traffic issues, especially at Belmont.... to me that is as free-running a trip as a horse who breaks on top comfortably. Don't get me wrong, very impressive. But again, just a maiden win in fast time with a great trip doesn't put the horse above a graded winner. Solid bet-against for me from an inside post vs tougher next out.